Related papers: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Solar Cycles Us…
The Waldmeier Effect is the observation that the rise time of a sunspot cycle varies inversely with the cycle amplitude: strong cycles rise to their maximum faster than weak cycles. The shape of the cycle and thus the rise time does not…
A simple method to detect inconsistencies in low annual sunspot numbers based on the relationship between these values and the annual number of active days is described. The analysis allowed for the detection of problems in the annual…
Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…
We analysed the combined Greenwich (1874-1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977-2011) data on sunspot groups. The daily rate of change of the area of a spot group is computed using the differences between the epochs of the spot…
Improving irradiance forecasting is critical to further increase the share of solar in the energy mix. On a short time scale, fish-eye cameras on the ground are used to capture cloud displacements causing the local variability of the…
Solar activity is an important driver of long-term climate trends and must be accounted for in climate models. Unfortunately, direct measurements of this quantity over long periods do not exist. The only observation related to solar…
In addition to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (GOR), the relation of the odd cycle with the subsequent even one in the 22-year Hale solar cycle was found. It is shown that 3 years before the 11-year minimum $m$, the value of the relative sunspot…
The increasing interest in understanding stellar magnetic activity cycles is a strong motivation for the development of parameterized starspot models which can be constrained observationally. In this work we develop an empirical tool for…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
In 1777 Ru{\dj}er Bo\v{s}kovi\'c observed sunspots, determined their positions and the solar rotation elements by his own methods briefly described here. We repeat his calculations of the mean solar time, sunspot positions, and solar…
The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with duration in the range of 20-250 years. Five type of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri; 2)…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
Solar activity is studied using a cluster analysis of the time-fluctuations of sunspot number. In the historic period (1850-1932) the cluster exponent was approximately equal to 0.37 (strong clustering) for the high activity components of…
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral…
Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar…
Owing to the growing concern of global warming and over-dependence on fossil fuels, there has been a huge interest in last years in the deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems for generating electricity. The output power of a PV array…
A direct dynamical test of the sunspot-cycle is carried out which indicates that a stochastically forced non-linear oscillator characterizes its dynamics. The sunspot series is then decomposed into its eigen time-delay coordinates. The…
The usual procedure for estimating the significance of a peak in a power spectrum is to calculate the probability of obtaining that value or a larger value by chance, on the assumption that the time series contains only noise (e.g. that the…