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We study asymptotic behaviour of stochastic approximation procedures with three main characteristics: truncations with random moving bounds, a matrix valued random step-size sequence, and a dynamically changing random regression function.…
We consider the set M_n of all n-truncated power moment sequences of probability measures on [0,1]. We endow this set with the uniform probability. Picking randomly a point in M_n, we show that the upper canonical measure associated with…
Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…
A moderate deviation principle for nonlinear functions of Gaussian processes is established. The nonlinear functions need not be locally bounded. Especially, the logarithm is allowed. (Thus, small deviations of the process are relevant.)…
We find the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocovariances of long-memory processes in cases of finite and infinite fourth moment. Depending on the interplay of assumptions on moments and the intensity of dependence, there are three…
We consider the short time behaviour of stochastic systems affected by a stochastic volatility evolving at a faster time scale. We study the asymptotics of a logarithmic functional of the process by methods of the theory of homogenisation…
A telegraph process with an elastic barrier at the origin was studied in [5]; in particular the number of visits of the origin before the absorption is a geometric distributed random variable M. Some asymptotic results (large and moderate…
We propose a method for approximating the large deviation rate function of time-integrated observables of diffusion processes, used in statistical physics to characterize the fluctuations of nonequilibrium systems. The method is based on…
We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a risk measure of variability in cost, under the risk-aware MDPs paradigm. Previous studies showed that risk-aware MDPs, based on a minimax approach to handling risk, can be…
For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant…
We use the theory of large deviations to study the pricing of investment-grade tranches of synthetic CDO's. In this paper, we consider a heterogeneous pool of names. Our main tool is a large-deviations analysis which allows us to precisely…
We prove two Large deviations principles (LDP) in the zone of moderate deviation probabilities. First we establish LDP for the conditional distributions of moderate deviations of empirical bootstrap measures given empirical probability…
We investigate large deviations for the empirical measure of the position and momentum of a particle traveling in a box with hot walls. The particle travels with uniform speed from left to right, until it hits the right boundary. Then it is…
From the sampling of data to the initialisation of parameters, randomness is ubiquitous in modern Machine Learning practice. Understanding the statistical fluctuations engendered by the different sources of randomness in prediction is…
We study the large deviations of sums of correlated random variables described by a matrix product ansatz, which generalizes the product structure of independent random variables to matrices whose non-commutativity is the source of…
We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…
In this paper, we introduce a mathematical apparatus that is relevant for understanding a dynamical system with small random perturbations and coupled with the so-called transmutation process -- where the latter jumps from one mode to…
We consider Stochastic Volatility processes with heavy tails and possible long memory in volatility. We study the limiting conditional distribution of future events given that some present or past event was extreme (i.e. above a level which…
In various disordered systems or non-equilibrium dynamical models, the large deviations of some observables have been found to display different scalings for rare values bigger or smaller than the typical value. In the present paper, we…
Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…