Related papers: Exact Moderate and Large Deviations for Linear Pro…

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

We prove large deviation principles (LDPs) for random matrices in the orthogonal group and Stiefel manifold, determining both the speed and good convex rate functions that are explicitly given in terms of certain log-determinants of…

Asymptotic properties of Markov Processes, such as steady state probabilities or hazard rate for absorbing states can be efficiently calculated by means of linear algebra even for large-scale problems. This paper discusses the methods for…

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

In this paper, we establish sample path large and moderate deviation principles for log-price processes in Gaussian stochastic volatility models, and study the asymptotic behavior of exit probabilities, call pricing functions, and the…

Large random matrices appear in different fields of mathematics and physics such as combinatorics, probability theory, statistics, operator theory, number theory, quantum field theory, string theory etc... In the last ten years, they…

An introduction to numerical large-deviation sampling is provided. First, direct biasing with a known distribution is explained. As simple example, the Bernoulli experiment is used throughout the text. Next, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We outline how modern likelihood theory, which provides essentially exact inferences in a variety of parametric statistical problems, may routinely be applied in practice. Although the likelihood procedures are based on analytical…

Margin-based classifiers have been popular in both machine learning and statistics for classification problems. Since a large number of classifiers are available, one natural question is which type of classifiers should be used given a…

In this paper, we show that the basic results in large deviations theory hold for general monetary risk measures, which satisfy the crucial property of max-stability. A max-stable monetary risk measure fulfills a lattice homomorphism…

This paper studies probabilistic rates of convergence for consensus+innovations type of algorithms in random, generic networks. For each node, we find a lower and also a family of upper bounds on the large deviations rate function, thus…

The purpose of the present paper is to establish moderate deviation principles for a rather general class of random variables fulfilling certain bounds of the cumulants. We apply a celebrated lemma of the theory of large deviations…

We provide asymptotic theory for certain functions of the sample autocovariance matrices of a high-dimensional time series with infinite fourth moment. The time series exhibits linear dependence across the coordinates and through time.…

For sequences of non-lattice weakly dependent random variables, we obtain asymptotic expansions for Large Deviation Principles. These expansions, commonly referred to as strong large deviation results, are in the spirit of Edgeworth…

Consider $M_n$ the maximal position at generation $n$ of a supercritical branching random walk. A\"id\'ekon (2013) obtained and described the convergence in law, as time $n$ goes to infinity, of $M_n-m_n$, where $m_n$ is an explicit…

We provide Large Deviation estimates for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process as the conditioning time tends to $0$ and apply these results to the evaluation of the asymptotics of its exit time probabilities. We are…

Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first…

Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…

We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…