Related papers: Exact Moderate and Large Deviations for Linear Pro…
We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…
Many networking-related settings can be modeled by Markov-modulated infinite-server systems. In such models, the customers' arrival rates and service rates are modulated by a Markovian background process, additionally, there are infinitely…
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…
We present two approaches for linear prediction of long-memory time series. The first approach consists in truncating the Wiener-Kolmogorov predictor by restricting the observations to the last $k$ terms, which are the only available values…
The standard approach to analyzing the asymptotic complexity of probabilistic programs is based on studying the asymptotic growth of certain expected values (such as the expected termination time) for increasing input size. We argue that…
We establish a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle (LDP) for log-processes associated with multivariate time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models. Examples of models for which the new LDP holds include Gaussian models,…
We study asymptotic properties of $M$-estimates of regression parameters in linear models in which errors are dependent. Weak and strong Bahadur representations of the $M$-estimates are derived and a central limit theorem is established.…
In this paper non-asymptotic exact exponential estimates are derived (under minimal conditions) for the tail of deviation of the MLE distribution in the so-called natural terms: natural function, natural distance, metric entropy, Banach…
Much work in the study of large deviations for random graph models is focused on the dense regime where the theory of graphons has emerged as a principal tool. These tools do not give a good approach to large deviation problems for random…
In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes with self-exciting and clustering properties. Hawkes process has been widely applied in finance, neuroscience, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. In this…
We introduce the concept of matrix liberation process, a random matrix counterpart of the liberation process in free probability, and prove a large deviation upper bound for its empirical distribution with several properties on its rate…
In this paper, we develop asymptotic theories for a class of latent variable models for large-scale multi-relational networks. In particular, we establish consistency results and asymptotic error bounds for the (penalized) maximum…
Partial differential equations with random inputs have become popular models to characterize physical systems with uncertainty coming from, e.g., imprecise measurement and intrinsic randomness. In this paper, we perform asymptotic rare…
The distributions of work for strongly non-equilibrium processes are studied using a very general form of a large-deviation approach, which allows one to study distributions of almost arbitrary quantities of interest for equilibrium,…
Value Iteration is a widely used algorithm for solving Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). While previous studies have extensively analyzed its convergence properties, they primarily focus on convergence with respect to the infinity norm. In…
Multivariate Poisson processes have many important applications in Insurance, Finance, and many other areas of Applied Probability. In this paper we study the backward simulation approach to modelling multivariate Poisson processes and…
This paper investigates the optimization problem of an infinite stage discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a long-run average metric considering both mean and variance of rewards together. Such performance metric is important…
We introduce a numerical procedure to evaluate directly the probabilities of large deviations of physical quantities, such as current or density, that are local in time. The large-deviation functions are given in terms of the typical…
Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…