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Gaussian process regression is a widely-applied method for function approximation and uncertainty quantification. The technique has gained popularity recently in the machine learning community due to its robustness and interpretability. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-12 Marcus M. Noack , James A. Sethian

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

This study presents an efficient incremental/decremental approach for big streams based on Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR), a frequently used data analysis in cloud centers. To avoid reanalyzing the whole dataset whenever sensors receive new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-10 Bo-Wei Chen , Nik Nailah Binti Abdullah , Sangoh Park

We introduce a fast algorithm for Gaussian process regression in low dimensions, applicable to a widely-used family of non-stationary kernels. The non-stationarity of these kernels is induced by arbitrary spatially-varying vertical and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-28 P. Michael Kielstra , Michael Lindsey

Given a discrete time sample $X_1,... X_n$ from a L\'evy process $X=(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ of a finite jump activity, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of the characteristic triplet $(\gamma,\sigma^2,\rho)$ corresponding to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Shota Gugushvili

We address the problem of quickest change detection in Markov processes with unknown transition kernels. The key idea is to learn the conditional score $\nabla_{\mathbf{y}} \log p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{x})$ directly from sample pairs $(…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-07 Wuxia Chen , Taposh Banerjee , Vahid Tarokh

The histogram estimator of a discrete probability mass function often exhibits undesirable properties related to zero probability estimation both within the observed range of counts and outside into the tails of the distribution. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-19 Alan Huang , Lucas Sippel , Thomas Fung

The challenge to fruitfully merge state-of-the-art techniques from mathematical finance and numerical analysis has inspired researchers to develop fast deterministic option pricing methods. As a result, highly efficient algorithms to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-11-06 Kathrin Glau

Recently, it has been shown that CSMA-type random access algorithms can achieve the maximum possible throughput in ad hoc wireless networks. However, these algorithms assume an idealized continuous-time CSMA protocol where collisions can…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Jian Ni , Bo Tan , R. Srikant

We consider high frequency samples from ergodic L\'evy driven stochastic differential equation (SDE) with drift coefficient $a(x,\alpha)$ and scale coefficient $c(x,\gamma)$ involving unknown parameters $\alpha$ and $\gamma$. We suppose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-12 Hiroki Masuda , Yuma Uehara

In this work, we study the problem of continual learning (CL) where the goal is to learn a model on a sequence of tasks, such that the data from the previous tasks becomes unavailable while learning on the current task data. CL is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-12 Imad Eddine Marouf , Subhankar Roy , Enzo Tartaglione , Stéphane Lathuilière

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Lo\`eve (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Kyle Hayes , Michael W. Fouts , Ali Baheri , David S. Mebane

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox , Carlos Guestrin

It is well understood that, when numerically simulating SDEs with general noise, achieving a strong convergence rate better than $O(\sqrt{h})$ (where h is the step size) requires the use of certain iterated integrals of Brownian motion,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-01 Andraž Jelinčič , Jiajie Tao , William F. Turner , Thomas Cass , James Foster , Hao Ni

We present simple, user-friendly bounds for the expected operator norm of a random kernel matrix under general conditions on the kernel function $k(\cdot,\cdot)$. Our approach uses decoupling results for U-statistics and the non-commutative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Chiraag Kaushik , Justin Romberg , Vidya Muthukumar

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

A general rate estimation method is proposed that is based on studying the in-sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics. The proposed rate estimators are based on simple least squares arguments, and are shown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Tucker McElroy , Dimitris N. Politis

In this article we study multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (MCARMA) processes with values in convex cones. More specifically, we introduce matrix-valued MCARMA processes with L\'evy noise and present necessary and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-19 Fred Espen Benth , Sven Karbach

Stochastic processes are random variables with values in some space of paths. However, reducing a stochastic process to a path-valued random variable ignores its filtration, i.e. the flow of information carried by the process through time.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-05 Cristopher Salvi , Maud Lemercier , Chong Liu , Blanka Hovarth , Theodoros Damoulas , Terry Lyons

Our goal is to estimate the characteristic exponent of the input to a L\'evy-driven storage system from a sample of equispaced workload observations. The estimator relies on an approximate moment equation associated with the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-29 Dennis Nieman , Michel Mandjes , Liron Ravner