Related papers: Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of MC…
Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…
We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation…
An important step in the Markov reward approach to error bounds on stationary performance measures of Markov chains is to bound the bias terms. Affine functions have been successfully used for these bounds for various models, but there are…
Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…
The problem of estimating a linear functional based on observational data is canonical in both the causal inference and bandit literatures. We analyze a broad class of two-stage procedures that first estimate the treatment effect function,…
In this work, we study the problem of distributed mean estimation with $1$-bit communication constraints when the variance is unknown. We focus on the specific case where each user has access to one i.i.d. sample drawn from a distribution…
This paper addresses the problem of estimating the Potts parameter B jointly with the unknown parameters of a Bayesian model within a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Standard MCMC methods cannot be applied to this problem because…
We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…
Asymptotics are given for the number of rational points in the domain of a morphism of weighted projective stacks whose images have bounded height and satisfy a (possibly infinite) set of local conditions. As a consequence we obtain results…
We study the convergence properties of a collapsed Gibbs sampler for Bayesian vector autoregressions with predictors, or exogenous variables. The Markov chain generated by our algorithm is shown to be geometrically ergodic regardless of…
We construct uniform and point-wise asymptotic confidence sets for the single edge in an otherwise smooth image function which are based on rotated differences of two one-sided kernel estimators. Using methods from M-estimation, we show…
Applying quantitative perturbation theory for linear operators, we prove non-asymptotic limit theorems for Markov chains whose transition kernel has a spectral gap in an arbitrary Banach algebra of functions X . The main results are…
Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
We prove the first Chernoff-Hoeffding bounds for general nonreversible finite-state Markov chains based on the standard L_1 (variation distance) mixing-time of the chain. Specifically, consider an ergodic Markov chain M and a weight…
The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…
We study boundary non-crossing probabilities $$ P_{f,u} := \mathrm P\big(\forall t\in \mathbb T\ X_t + f(t)\le u(t)\big) $$ for continuous centered Gaussian process $X$ indexed by some arbitrary compact separable metric space $\mathbb T$.…
We present a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of mathematical models of cardiac electrophysiology with quantified uncertainty. Such models capture the dynamics of the electrical signal that coordinates the muscle cell…
Estimation under model misspecification arises in many signal processing problems, where the assumed observation model deviates from the true data-generating mechanism due to errors or simplifications. The misspecified Cram\'er-Rao bound…
We obtain an asymptotic normality result that reveals the precise asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of parameters for a very general class of linear mixed models containing cross random effects. In achieving the…
The generalized Poor-Verdu error lower bound for multihypothesis testing is revisited. Its asymptotic expression is established in closed-form as its tilting parameter grows to infinity. It is also shown that the asymptotic generalized…