Related papers: Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of MC…

This short note reviews the basic theory for quantifying both the asymptotic and preasymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimators.

We show that the class of $L^2$ functions for which ergodic averages of a reversible Markov chain have finite asymptotic variance is determined by the class of $L^2$ functions for which ergodic averages of its associated jump chain have…

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

In this paper, we derive non-asymptotic achievability and converse bounds on the random number generation with/without side-information. Our bounds are efficiently computable in the sense that the computational complexity does not depend on…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds…

We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…

This paper is devoted to the non-asymptotic control of the mean-squared error for the Ruppert-Polyak stochastic averaged gradient descent introduced in the seminal contributions of [Rup88] and [PJ92]. In our main results, we establish…

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed…

This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the…

In this paper we study the ergodicity properties of some adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) that have been recently proposed in the literature. We prove that under a set of verifiable conditions, ergodic averages calculated…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) lies at the core of modern Bayesian methodology, much of which would be impossible without it. Thus, the convergence properties of MCMCs have received significant attention, and in particular, proving…

We construct the least-square estimator for the unknown drift parameter in the multifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and establish its strong consistency in the non-ergodic case. The proofs are based on the asymptotic bounds with…

We consider whether ergodic Markov chains with bounded step size remain bounded in probability when their transitions are modified by an adversary on a bounded subset. We provide counterexamples to show that the answer is no in general, and…

We prove a central limit theorem for a general class of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms driven by sub-geometrically ergodic Markov kernels. We discuss in detail the special case of stochastic approximation. We use the result to…

We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under…

Let $f:[0,1]^d\to\mathbb{R}$ be a completely monotone integrand as defined by Aistleitner and Dick (2015) and let points $\boldsymbol{x}_0,\dots,\boldsymbol{x}_{n-1}\in[0,1]^d$ have a non-negative local discrepancy (NNLD) everywhere in…

Spectral estimation is a fundamental problem for time series analysis, which is widely applied in economics, speech analysis, seismology, and control systems. The asymptotic convergence theory for classical, non-parametric estimators, is…