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We consider a time-average estimator $f_{k}$ of a functional of a Markov chain. Under a coupling assumption, we show that the expectation of $f_{k}$ has a limit $\mu$ as the number of time-steps goes to infinity. We describe a modification…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Nabil Kahale

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Philippe Soulier

Inexact Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods rely on Markov chains that do not exactly preserve the target distribution. Examples include the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) and unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (uHMC). This paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-13 Alain Oliviero Durmus , Andreas Eberle

We consider a one-dimensional Gaussian process having exponential covariance function. Under fixed-domain asymptotics, we prove the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of a cross validation estimator of the microergodic covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-26 Francois Bachoc , Agnes Lagnoux , Thi Mong Ngoc Nguyen

Although approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique for performing parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable there has not as yet been a complete investigation of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-19 Thomas A. Dean , Sumeetpal S. Singh

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

Computation · Statistics 2007-11-02 Ajay Jasra , David A. Stephens , Chris C. Holmes

We address the problem of solving strongly convex and smooth minimization problems using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm with a constant step size. Previous works suggested to combine the Polyak-Ruppert averaging procedure with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Marina Sheshukova , Denis Belomestny , Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

Gaussian errors are sometimes inappropriate in a multivariate linear regression setting because, for example, the data contain outliers. In such situations, it is often assumed that the error density is a scale mixture of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-28 James P. Hobert , Yeun Ji Jung , Kshitij Khare , Qian Qin

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a widespread method for empirical Bayesian inference, but its expectation step (E-step) is often intractable. Employing a stochastic approximation scheme with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2024-02-29 Samuel Gruffaz , Kyurae Kim , Alain Oliviero Durmus , Jacob R. Gardner

Recent theoretical works have characterized the dynamics of wide shallow neural networks trained via gradient descent in an asymptotic mean-field limit when the width tends towards infinity. At initialization, the random sampling of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Zhengdao Chen , Grant M. Rotskoff , Joan Bruna , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

The widespread use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional applications has motivated research into the scalability of these algorithms with respect to the dimension of the problem. Despite this, numerous problems…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-21 Ardjen Pengel , Jun Yang , Zhou Zhou

This paper proposes a family of weighted batch means variance estimators, which are computationally efficient and can be conveniently applied in practice. The focus is on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and estimation of the asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Ying Liu , James M. Flegal

Calculating averages with respect to multimodal probability distributions is often necessary in applications. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to this end, which are based on time averages along a realization of a Markov process…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-24 M. Chak , T. Lelièvre , G. Stoltz , U. Vaes

This article shows how coupled Markov chains that meet exactly after a random number of iterations can be used to generate unbiased estimators of the solutions of the Poisson equation. Through this connection, we re-derive known unbiased…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-10 Randal Douc , Pierre E. Jacob , Anthony Lee , Dootika Vats

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-06 Christophe Andrieu , Sinan Yıldırım , Arnaud Doucet , Nicolas Chopin

In this paper we study the central limit theorem for additive functionals of stationary Markov chains with general state space by using a new idea involving conditioning with respect to both the past and future of the chain. Practically, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Magda Peligrad

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of…

Computation · Statistics 2021-11-19 Jeremie Coullon , Leah South , Christopher Nemeth

Using the renewal approach we prove Bernstein-like inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The coefficient in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Michał Lemańczyk
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