Related papers: Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error of MC…

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

Understanding stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants is essential for machine learning. However, most of the preceding analyses are conducted under amenable conditions such as unbiased gradient estimator and bounded objective…

In this paper, we derive upper bounds on generalization errors for deep neural networks with Markov datasets. These bounds are developed based on Koltchinskii and Panchenko's approach for bounding the generalization error of combined…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should stop. We consider…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

We consider the problems of identifying and estimating dynamical parameters of an ergodic quantum Markov chain, when only the stationary output is accessible for measurements. On the identifiability question, we show that the knowledge of…

Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…

We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV). The out-of-sample prediction loss of such estimators converges in distribution to the squared-error…

We study the asymptotic properties of distributed consensus algorithms over switching directed random networks. More specifically, we focus on consensus algorithms over independent and identically distributed, directed random graphs, where…

We prove a pointwise ergodic theorem and a maximal inequality for actions of amenable groups on noncommutative measure spaces. To do so, we establish a square function estimate quantifying the difference between ergodic averages and some…

Rao and Teh (2012, 2013) introduced an efficient MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of a hidden Markov jump process. The algorithm is based on the idea of sampling virtual jumps. In the present paper we show that…

Computable and sharp error bounds are derived for asymptotic expansions for linear differential equations having a simple turning point. The expansions involve Airy functions and slowly varying coefficient functions. The sharpness of the…

Directed and undirected graphical models, also called Bayesian networks and Markov random fields, respectively, are important statistical tools in a wide variety of fields, ranging from computational biology to probabilistic artificial…

In this paper, we derive an asymptotic closed--form expression for the error bound on extrapolation of doubly selective mobile MIMO wireless channels. The bound shows the relationship between the prediction error and system design…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the…

In this paper, we propose a variance reduction approach for Markov chains based on additive control variates and the minimization of an appropriate estimate for the asymptotic variance. We focus on the particular case when control variates…