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We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic,…
Consider an SI process on a graph $G$ where each S--I connection becomes I--I at rate $\lambda$. Here S and I stand for ``susceptible'' and ``infected'' respectively. The evoSI model is a modification of the SI model in which S--I edges are…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
The evoSIR model is a modification of the usual SIR process on a graph $G$ in which $S-I$ connections are broken at rate $\rho$ and the $S$ connects to a randomly chosen vertex. The evoSI model is the same as evoSIR but recovery is…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
We introduce a new percolation model to describe and analyze the spread of an epidemic on a general directed and locally finite graph. We assign a two-dimensional random weight vector to each vertex of the graph in such a way that the…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…
Network epidemics is a ubiquitous model that can represent different phenomena and finds applications in various domains. Among its various characteristics, a fundamental question concerns the time when an epidemic stops propagating. We…
The contact process, or SIS epidemic, is a continuous-time Markov process used to model the spread of infection on a graph. Each vertex is either healthy or infected, and each infected vertex independently infects each of its healthy…
We derive an analytical expression for the critical infection rate r_c of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) disease spreading model on random networks. To obtain r_c, we first calculate the probability of reinfection, pi, defined…
Mathematical models are formal and simplified representations of the knowledge related to a phenomenon. In classical epidemic models, a neglected aspect is the heterogeneity of disease transmission and progression linked to the viral load…
Random networks with specified degree distributions have been proposed as realistic models of population structure, yet the problem of dynamically modeling SIR-type epidemics in random networks remains complex. I resolve this dilemma by…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on a network with community structure, namely the stochastic block model (SBM). As usual, the SIR model is a stochastic model for an epidemic where…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
In this paper we study a discrete-time SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, where the infection and healing parameters and the underlying network may change over time. We provide conditions for the model to be well-defined and…
We investigate the expected time to extinction in the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model of disease spreading. Rather than using stochastic simulations, or asymptotic calculations in network models, we solve the extinction time…
We show that the contact process on a random $d$-regular graph initiated by a single infected vertex obeys the "cutoff phenomenon" in its supercritical phase. In particular, we prove that when the infection rate is larger than the critical…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models of epidemics, with possibly time-varying rates, on a class of networks that are locally tree-like, which includes sparse…