Related papers: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise…
Zombie fires in peatlands disappear from the surface, smoulder underground during the winter, and `come back to life' in the spring. They can release hundreds of megatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere per year and are believed to be…
Tipping in multistable systems occurs usually by varying the input slightly, resulting in the output switching to an often unsatisfactory state. This phenomenon is manifested in thermoacoustic systems. This thermoacoustic instability may…
We discuss the transition paths in a coupled bistable system consisting of interacting multiple identical bistable motifs. We propose a simple model of coupled bistable gene circuits as an example, and show that its transition paths are…
A habitat that is moving due to environmental change may result in tipping to extinction if the rate at which it moves is too great. We use a scalar reaction-diffusion equation with a non-autonomous reaction term, representing a spatially…
Noise plays a fundamental role in a wide variety of physical and biological dynamical systems. It can arise from an external forcing or due to random dynamics internal to the system. It is well established that even weak noise can result in…
An in-depth analysis of nonautonomous bifurcations of saddle-node type for scalar differential equations $x'=-x^2+q(t)\,x+p(t)$, where $q\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ and $p\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ are bounded and uniformly…
We present a novel exactly solvable ordinary differential equation model for rate-induced tipping: a dynamic phenomenon of dynamical systems where a time-dependent parameter triggers the transition of stability of a system. Our model…
We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a…
Global environmental change is pushing many socio-environmental systems towards critical thresholds, where ecological systems' states are on the precipice of tipping points and interventions are needed to navigate or avert impending…
This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…
We study noise-induced switching of a system close to bifurcation parameter values where the number of stable states changes. For non-Gaussian noise, the switching exponent, which gives the logarithm of the switching rate, displays a…
An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an $\alpha$-stable non-Gaussian L\'evy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a…
Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…
Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…
In the past decades human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby…
A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…
Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive}…
We present recent results on noise-induced transitions in a nonlinear oscillator with randomly modulated frequency. The presence of stochastic perturbations drastically alters the dynamical behaviour of the oscillator: noise can wash out a…
The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear…
Polyhomeostatic adaption occurs when evolving systems try to achieve a target distribution function for certain dynamical parameters, a generalization of the notion of homeostasis. Here we consider a single rate encoding leaky integrator…