Related papers: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Social behaviour models are increasingly integrated into climate change studies, and the significance of climate tipping points for `runaway' climate change is well recognised. However, there has been insufficient focus on tipping points in…
Slow parameter drift is common in many systems (e.g., the amount of greenhouse gases in the terrestrial atmosphere is increasing). In such situations, the attractor on which the system trajectory lies can be destroyed, and the trajectory…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…
Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable…
Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…
Much research has been conducted arguing that tipping points at which complex systems experience phase transitions are difficult to identify. To test the existence of tipping points in financial markets, based on the alternating offer…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent…
In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
Noise-induced transitions between metastable fixed points in systems evolving on multiple time scales are analyzed in situations where the time scale separation gives rise to a slow manifold with bifurcation. This analysis is performed…
We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
Global cooperation is posited as a pivotal solution to address climate change, yet significant barriers, like free-riding, hinder its realization. This paper develops a dynamic game-theoretic model to analyze the stability of coalitions…
Complex adaptive systems (CASs), from ecosystems to economies, are open systems and inherently dependent on external conditions. While a system can transition from one state to another based on the magnitude of change in external…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…