Related papers: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise…
This paper investigates biological models that represent the transition equation from a system in the past to a system in the future. It is shown that finite-time Lyapunov exponents calculated along a locally pullback attractive solution…
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…
A new type of noised-induced phase transitions that should occur in systems of elements with motivated behavior is considered. By way of an example, a simple oscillatory system {x,v} with additive white noise is analyzed numerically. A…
Nonsmooth formulations of physical models are common, particularly in climate modeling. However, in many of these models, there is little justification for this modeling choice, and no mathematical indication that the resulting behavior in…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
We propose a model of multispecies populations surviving on distributed resources. System dynamics are investigated under changes in abiotic factors such as the climate, as parameterized through environmental temperature. In particular, we…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
Critical transitions or regime shifts are sudden and unexpected changes in the state of an ecosystem, that are usually associated with dangerous levels of environmental change. However, recent studies show that critical transitions can also…
The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…
The properties of the fluctuations large enough to induce bifurcations at open chemical systems at steady constraints are studied. The fluctuations that come from the diffusion-induced noise are considered. It is a generic for the surface…
A diffusive ratio-dependent Holling-Tanner system subject to Neumann boundary conditions is considered. The existence of multiple bifurcations, including Turing-Hopf bifurcation, Turing-Truing bifurcation, Hopf-double-Turing bifurcation and…
Semiconductor qubit devices suffer from the drift of important device parameters as they are operated. The most important example is a shift in qubit operating frequencies. This effect appears to be directly related to the heating of the…
The competing effect of heterogeneity and symmetry breaking coupling on the emerging dynamics in a system of N globally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators is investigated. Increasing the heterogeneity, using the standard deviation of the…
The identification of tipping points is essential for prediction of collapses or other sudden changes in complex systems. Applications include studies of ecology, thermodynamics, climatology, and epidemiology. However, detecting early signs…
Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…
Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…
A tipping point can be defined as an abrupt shift in the properties or behaviour of a system. Tipping points in complex systems from a wide variety of scientific disciplines have been compared to phase transitions in physics, but consistent…
Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…