Related papers: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise…
Oscillatory systems with time-delayed pulsatile feedback appear in various applied and theoretical research areas, and received a growing interest in the last years. For such systems, we report a remarkable scenario of destabilization of a…
We study numerically and analytically first- and second-order phase transitions in neuronal networks stimulated by shot noise (a flow of random spikes bombarding neurons). Using an exactly solvable cortical model of neuronal networks on…
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the centre manifold theorem. It is often tacitly…
Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…
We study the role of noise on the nature of the transition to collective motion in dry active matter. Starting from field theories that predict a continuous transition at the deterministic level, we show that fluctuations induce a…
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…
A function with finite asymptotic limits gives rise to a transition equation between a "past system" and a "future system". This question is analyzed in the case of nonautonomous coercive nonlinear scalar ordinary differential equations…
Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining…
Model-free and data-driven prediction of tipping point transitions in nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging and outstanding task in complex systems science. We propose a novel, fully data-driven machine learning algorithm based on…
Noise, through its interaction with the nonlinearity of the living systems, can give rise to counter-intuitive phenomena such as stochastic resonance, noise-delayed extinction, temporal oscillations, and spatial patterns. In this paper we…
Plankton blooms are complex nonlinear phenomena whose occurrence can be described by the two-timescale (fast-slow) phytoplankton-zooplankton model intrpduced by Truscott and Brindley 1994. In their work, they observed that a sufficiently…
There are hidden observables for inflation, such as features localized in position space, which do not manifest themselves when only one inflation trajectory is considered. To address this issue, we investigate inflation dynamics in a…
The behavior of a stationary inverted point mass pendulum pivoted at its lower end in a gravitational potential is studied under the influence of statistical fluctuations. It is shown using purely classical equations that the pendulum…
We consider the rates of noise-induced switching between the stable states of dissipative dynamical systems with delay and also the rates of noise-induced extinction, where such systems model population dynamics. We study a class of systems…
We discuss the effect of noise on a system with a quasi-periodicity of different dimensions. As the basic model of our research we use the simplest three-dimensional map with two-frequency and three-frequency quasi-periodicity. Modification…
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…
Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
The work reported here aims to address the effects of time-dependent parameters and stochasticity on decision-making in biological systems. We achieve this by extending previous studies that resorted to simple normal forms. Yet, we focus…