Related papers: The foreign exchange market: return distributions,…
This paper shows that jumps in financial asset prices are often erroneously identified and are, in fact, rare events accounting for a very small proportion of the total price variation. We apply new econometric techniques to a comprehensive…
Fluctuations of observables as functions of time, or "fluctuation patterns", are studied in a chaotic microscopically reversible system that has irreversibly reached a nonequilibrium stationary state. Supposing that during a certain, long…
We develop a framework especially suited to the autocorrelation properties observed in financial times series, by borrowing from the physical picture of turbulence. The success of our approach as applied to high frequency foreign exchange…
The condition for stationary increments, not scaling, detemines long time pair autocorrelations. An incorrect assumption of stationary increments generates spurious stylized facts, fat tails and a Hurst exponent H_s=1/2, when the increments…
The formation of price in a financial market is modelled as a chain of Ising spin with three fundamental figures of trading. We investigate the time behaviour of the model, and we compare the results with the real EURO/USD change rate. By…
Fluctuations in the return time statistics of a dynamical system can be described by a new spectrum of dimensions. Comparison with the usual multifractal analysis of measures is presented, and difference between the two corresponding sets…
Properties of low-variability periods in the time series are analysed. The theoretical approach is used to show the relationship between the multi-scaling of low-variability periods and multi-affinity of the time series. It is shown that…
Algorithm of multicurrency trading at the market of Forex is realized on the basis of nonlinear stochastic wavelets. The distinctive feature of the algorithm is the possibility of weakly- and strongly connected horizontal self-assemblies,…
We study how trading costs are reflected in equilibrium returns. To this end, we develop a tractable continuous-time risk-sharing model, where heterogeneous mean-variance investors trade subject to a quadratic transaction cost. The…
This paper studies of the multifractal dynamics in 84 cryptocurrencies. It fills an important gap in the literature, by studying this market using two alternative multi-scaling methodologies. We find compelling evidence that…
In foreign exchange markets monotonic rate changes can be observed in time scale of order of an hour on the days that governmental interventions took place. We estimate the starting time of an intervention using this characteristic behavior…
The Foreign Exchange (Forex) is a large decentralized market, on which trading analysis and algorithmic trading are popular. Research efforts have been focusing on proof of efficiency of certain technical indicators. We demonstrate,…
The inverse structure functions of exit distances have been introduced as a novel diagnostic of turbulence which emphasizes the more laminar regions [1-4]. Using Taylor's frozen field hypothesis, we investigate the statistical properties of…
We present a symmetry analysis of the distribution of variations of different financial indices, by means of a statistical procedure developed by the authors based on a symmetry statistic by Einmahl and Mckeague. We applied this statistical…
We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time…
A time series model for the FX dynamics is presented which takes into account structural peculiarities of the market, namely its heterogeneity and an information flow from long to short time horizons. The model emerges from an analogy…