English

Dynamical model of financial markets: fluctuating `temperature' causes intermittent behavior of price changes

Statistical Mechanics 2009-11-07 v1 Statistical Finance

Abstract

We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the `temperature' fluctuates slowly. The model generally yields a fat-tailed distribution of the price change. Specifically a Tsallis distribution is obtained if the inverse temperature is χ2\chi^{2}-distributed, which qualitatively agrees with intraday data of foreign exchange market. The so-called `volatility', a quantity indicating the risk or activity in financial markets, corresponds to the temperature of markets and its fluctuation leads to intermittency.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.cond-mat/0210090,
  title  = {Dynamical model of financial markets: fluctuating `temperature' causes intermittent behavior of price changes},
  author = {Naoki Kozuki and Nobuko Fuchikami},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/0210090},
  year   = {2009}
}

Comments

9 pages including 2 figures