Related papers: The foreign exchange market: return distributions,…
Behavioural finance offers a valuable framework for examining foreign exchange (FX) market dynamics, including puzzles such as excess volatility and fat-tailed distributions. Yet, when it comes to their interaction with the `real' side of…
The large variability of renewable power sources is a central challenge in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Electricity markets are central for the coordination of electric power generation. These markets rely evermore on…
We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using high-frequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find…
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system…
This study considers the multivariate segmentation procedure under the assumption of the multivariate Gaussian mixture. Jensen-Shannon divergence between two multivariate Gaussian distributions is employed as a discriminator and a recursive…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
Using Trades and Quotes data from the Paris stock market, we show that the random walk nature of traded prices results from a very delicate interplay between two opposite tendencies: long-range correlated market orders that lead to…
We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally…
We perform an analysis of fractal properties of the positive and the negative changes of the German DAX30 index separately using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). By calculating the singularity spectra $f(\alpha)$ we show…
We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic…
Stock price change in financial market occurs through transactions in analogy with diffusion in stochastic physical systems. The analysis of price changes in real markets shows that long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely…
This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…
Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the…
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to…
We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Based on the…
This paper describes asset price and return disturbances as result of relations between transactions and multiple kinds of expectations. We show that disturbances of expectations can cause fluctuations of trade volume, price and return. We…
The behavior of stock market returns over a period of 1-60 days has been investigated for S&P 500 and Nasdaq within the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. Even for such long terms, the distributions of the returns are…
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in…
The British Pound (GBP) is not part of the Euro (EUR) monetary system. In order to find out arguments on whether GBP should join the EUR or not correlations are calculated between GBP and EUR, including a reconstructed EUR for the time…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a…