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The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
We present an application of optimal control theory to Dengue epidemics. This epidemiologic disease is an important theme in tropical countries due to the growing number of infected individuals. The dynamic model is described by a set of…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
Controlling diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and zika fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in mosquito populations which are their vectors, is presently quite a promising tool to reduce their…
A deterministic cellular automaton rule defined on the Moore neighbourhood is studied as a model of epidemic propagation. The directed nature of the interaction between cells allows one to introduce the dependence on a disorder parameter…
The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS.…
Medical statistics reveal a significant dependence of hospitalized dengue patient on the patient's age. To incorporate an age-dependence into a mathematical model, we extend the classical ODE system of disease dynamics to a PDE system. The…
Investigating the seasonality of disease incidences is very important in disease surveillance in regions with periodical climatic patterns. In lieu of the paradigm about disease incidences varying seasonally in line with meteorology, this…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
Different extensions of the classical single-strain SIR model for the host population, motivated by modeling dengue fever epidemiology, have reported a rich dynamic structure including deterministic chaos which was able to explain the large…
Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically…
It is preliminarily known that Aedes mosquitoes are very close to humans and their dwellings, also give rises to a broad spectrum of diseases: dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya. In this paper, we explore a multi-age-class model for mosquito…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent''…
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…
Dengue fever poses a persistent public health challenge in rapidly urbanizing Indian cities such as Ahmedabad, where spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variability complicate forecasting and control. In this study, we develop a data-driven…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…