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From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…
Multistrain diseases have multiple distinct coexisting serotypes (strains). For some diseases, such as dengue fever, the serotypes interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic,…
Global mobility flow data are at the heart of spatial epidemiological models used to predict infectious disease behavior but this wealth of data on human mobility has been largely neglected by reconstructions of pathogen evolutionary…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Dengue is an infectious disease which poses significant socioeconomic and disease burden in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This work aims to provide additional insight into the association between dengue and climate in…
In face of climate change and increasing urbanization, the predictive mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) transmission models require constant updates. Thus, is urgent to comprehend the driving forces of this non stationary behavior, observed…
The prediction of the behavior of the disease, the level of affectation in a population and the ways to control it are the most important aspects studied by epidemiology using tools such as historical data and mathematical models. So, our…
Quantifying the attack ratio of disease is key to epidemiological inference and Public Health planning. For multi-serotype pathogens, however, different levels of serotype-specific immunity make it difficult to assess the population at…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
Effects of externally imposed periodic changes in the environment on population dynamics are studied with the help of a simple model. The environmental changes are represented by the temporal and spatial dependence of the competition terms…
Emerging infectious diseases and climate change are two of the major challenges in 21st century. Although over the past decades, highly-resolved mathematical models have contributed in understanding dynamics of infectious diseases and are…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…
A deterministic pathogen transmission model based on high-fidelity physics has been developed. The model combines computational fluid dynamics and computational crowd dynamics in order to be able to provide accurate tracing of viral matter…