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A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic…
The temporal dynamics of social interactions were shown to influence the spread of disease. Here, we model the conditions of progression and competition for several viral strains, exploring various levels of cross-immunity over temporal…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
The emergence or adaptation of pathogens may lead to epidemics, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of pathogen evolution. The tradeoff hypothesis suggests that virulence evolves to reach an optimal transmission intensity…
The performance of data-driven prediction models depends on the availability of data samples for model training. A model that learns about dengue fever incidence in a population uses historical data from that corresponding location. Poor…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease which is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia and the Western Pacific. This study addresses a mathematical…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
The current manuscript introduce a single-strain dengue model developed from stochastic processes incorporating fractional order transmission and recovery. The fractional derivative has been introduced within the context of transmission and…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
The influence of climate on mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya is well-established, but comprehensively tracking long-term spatial and temporal trends across large areas has been hindered by fragmented data and limited…
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…
In this paper, we present a model-based periodic event-triggered control mechanism for nonlinear continuous-time Networked Control Systems. A sampled-data prediction of the system behavior is used at the actuator to reduce the amount of…
We analyse an epidemiological model of competing strains of pathogens and hence differences in transmission for first versus secondary infection due to interaction of the strains with previously aquired immunities, as has been described for…
There are nowadays a huge load of publications about dengue epidemic models, which mostly employ deterministic differential equations. The analytical properties of deterministic models are always of particular interest by many experts, but…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease that is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia, and the Western Pacific. In this paper, we present a…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…