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Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…
In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…
Spatially constrained clustering is an important field of research, particularly when it involves changes over time. Partitioning a map is not simple since there is a vast number of possible partitions within the search space. In…
A model with six mutually-exclusive compartments related to dengue is studied. Three vector control tools are considered: insecticides (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical control. The basic reproduction number associated to the model…
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown…
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI epidemiological model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, subject to seasonal variations. Assuming continuous measurement of the incidence rate (that is the…
Supervised machine learning models and public surveillance data has been employed for infectious disease forecasting in many settings. These models leverage various data sources capturing drivers of disease spread, such as climate…
In mathematical epidemiology, epidemic control often aims at driving the number of infected individuals to zero, asymptotically. However , during the transitory phase, the number of infected can peak at high values. In this paper, we…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
Viral kinetics have been extensively studied in the past through the use of spatially homogeneous ordinary differential equations describing the time evolution of the diseased state. However, spatial characteristics such as localized…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations.…
During infectious disease outbreaks, estimates of time-varying pathogen transmissibility, such as the instantaneous reproduction number R(t) or epidemic growth rate r(t), are used to inform decision-making by public health authorities. For…
We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…
Infection by distinct Dengue virus serotypes and host immunity are intricately linked. In particular, certain levels of cross-reactive antibodies in the host may actually enhance infection severity leading to Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF).…
We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by…