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The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 J. Verdasca , M. M. Telo da Gama , A. Nunes , N. R. Bernardino , J. M. Pacheco , M. C. Gomes

A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-17 Frank Ball , Tom Britton

In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-21 Carles Rovira

Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-14 Abhay Gupta , Nicholas W. Landry

Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-23 Mahmudul Bari Hridoy

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-09-11 Eric Forgoston , Ira B. Schwartz

We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-02-14 Artem S. Novozhilov

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-29 Rossella Della Marca , Nadia Loy , Andrea Tosin

We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-19 Paulo C. Ventura , Eric K. Tokuda , Luciano da F. Costa , Francisco A. Rodrigues

This paper presents a law of large numbers result, as the size of the population tends to infinity, of SIR stochastic epidemic models, for a population distributed over $L$ distinct patches (with migrations between them) and $K$ distinct…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux

Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-06 Kurnia Susvitasari

In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-16 Semra Gunduc

In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-09 Martin Dottori , Gabriel Fabricius

One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-07-14 Faryad Darabi Sahneh , Caterina Scoglio

We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-08 Roberto Cortez

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-08 Martina Favero , Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba , Tom Britton

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-09 Clara Granell , Peter J. Mucha

The ordinary contact process is used to model the spread of a disease in a population. In this model, each infected individual waits an exponentially distributed time with parameter 1 before becoming healthy. In this paper, we introduce and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Erik I. Broman

Different countries -- and sometimes different regions within the same countries -- have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-17 Giuseppe Gaeta