Related papers: A stochastic SIR model with contact-tracing: large…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…
We introduce a kinetic framework for modeling the time evolution of the statistical distributions of the population densities in the three compartments of susceptible, infectious, and recovered individuals, under epidemic spreading driven…
This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new…
This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…
This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…
In dynamic models of infectious disease transmission, typically various mixing patterns are imposed on the so-called Who-Acquires-Infection-From-Whom matrix (WAIFW). These imposed mixing patterns are based on prior knowledge of age-related…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
We investigate the use of transfer entropy (TE) as a proxy to detect the contact patterns of the population in epidemic processes. We first apply the measure to a classical age-stratified SIR model and observe that the recovered patterns…
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…
We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model…
We consider a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on random trees and on the configuration model. On a rooted tree, where initially all individuals are susceptible apart from the root which is…
An epidemic model where disease transmission can occur either through global contacts or through local, nearest neighbor interactions is considered. The classical SIR--model describing the global interactions is extended by adding…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on a network with community structure, namely the stochastic block model (SBM). As usual, the SIR model is a stochastic model for an epidemic where…