Related papers: The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation…
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…
The decision process requires information about the present state of the system, but in economy acquiring data and processing them is an expensive and time consuming process. Therefore the state of the system is measured and announced at…
We compare correlations and coherent structures in nuclei and financial markets. In the nuclear physics part we review giant resonances which can be interpreted as a coherent structure embedded in chaos. With similar methods we investigate…
We present a model of an economy inspired by individual based model approaches in evolutionary ecology. We demonstrate that evolutionary dynamics in a space of companies interconnected through a correlated interaction matrix produces time…
Growth rate of the world Growth Domestic Product (GDP) is analysed to determine possible pathways of the future economic growth. The analysis is based on using the latest data of the World Bank and it reveals that the growth rate between…
We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that, between 2012 and 2024, the EA…
In recent decades, trade between nations has constituted an important component of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with official estimates showing that it likely accounted for a quarter of total global production. While evidence of…
The European Union is engaged in the fight against climate change. A crucial issue to enforce common environmental guidelines is environmental convergence. States converging in environmental variables are expected to be able to jointly…
Financial markets are highly correlated systems that reveal both the inter-market dependencies and the correlations among their different components. Standard analyzing techniques include correlation coefficients for pairs of signals and…
The 2008 economic crisis was not forecastable by at that time existing models of macroeconomics. Thus macroeconomics needs new tools. We introduce a model based on National Accounts that shows how macroeconomic sectors are interconnected.…
Financial market is an example of complex system, which is characterized by a highly intricate organization and the emergence of collective behavior. In this paper, we quantify this emergent dynamics in the financial market by using…
We study the co-movement of the 10-year sovereign bond yields of 11 EU countries. Our analysis is focused mainly on changes in co-movement during the financial crisis period, especially around two significant dates - the fall of Lehman…
We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.…
A geometric analysis of the time series of returns has been performed in the past and it implied that the most of the systematic information of the market is contained in a space of small dimension. Here we have explored subspaces of this…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
Economic growth is conventionally analyzed at the national level, yet cities generate the bulk of global output. Here we construct GDP trajectories for 8,808 functional urban areas (FUAs) across 165 countries over 1993-2019 using…
A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per…
This paper introduces Experiential Matrix Theory (EMT), a general theory of growth, employment, and technological change for the age of artificial intelligence (AI). EMT redefines utility as the alignment between production and an evolving,…
Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of…
Reflecting boundary conditions cause two one-dimensional random walks to synchronize if a common direction is chosen in each step. The mean synchronization time and its standard deviation are calculated analytically. Both quantities are…