Related papers: The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation…

During the last decades particular effort has been directed towards understanding and predicting the relevant state of the business cycle with the objective of decomposing permanent shocks from those having only a transitory impact on real…

Policy targets are being set increasingly for social and economic variables in the UK. This approach requires that reasonably successful ex ante forecasts can be made. We propose a general methodology for assessing the extent to which this…

Inclusiveness and economic development have been slowed by the pandemics and military conflicts. This study investigates the main determinants of inclusiveness at the European level. A multi-method approach is used, with Principal Component…

We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…

We study the dynamic interactions and structural changes in global financial indices in the years 1998-2012. We apply a principal component analysis (PCA) to cross-correlation coefficients of the stock indices. We calculate the correlations…

This study examines the relationship between GDP growth and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) across developed economies (G7, EU-15, OECD) and emerging markets (BRICS). We integrate Random Forest machine learning (non-linear regression)…

The cross correlation matrix between equities comprises multiple interactions between traders with varying strategies and time horizons. In this paper, we use the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform to calculate correlation matrices…

Economic growth is measured as the rate of relative change in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Yet, when incomes follow random multiplicative growth, the ensemble-average (GDP per capita) growth rate is higher than the time-average…

We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible…

UK GDP data is published with a lag time of more than a month and it is often adjusted for prior periods. This paper contemplates breaking away from the historic GDP measure to a more dynamic method using Bank Account, Cheque and Credit…

The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income…

The paper studies the nowcasting of Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth using mixed data sampling machine learning panel data regressions with both standard macro releases and daily news data. Using a panel of 19 Euro area…

We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a…

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the logistic function to model the evolution of two economic systems. The first is the GDP and trade growth of the USA, and the second is the revenue and human resource growth of IBM. Our modelling is…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

Recent advances in the urban science make broad use of the notion of scaling. We focus here on the important scaling relationship between the gross metropolitan product (GMP) of a city and its population (pop). It has been demonstrated that…

The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…

Is there a general economic pathway recapitulated by individual cities over and over? Identifying such evolution structure, if any, would inform models for the assessment, maintenance, and forecasting of urban sustainability and economic…

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO$_2$ emissions across European regions from 1990 to 2022, specifically concerning the dynamics of emissions growth rates through different phases of the European Union…

This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we…