Related papers: The evolution of EU business cycle synchronisation…
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
An information entropy statistical methodology was used to evaluate the growth of the UK economy over the period 2000 to 2019, with an emphasis on the impact of labour productivity on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the average…
The measured correlations of financial time series in subsequent epochs change considerably as a function of time. When studying the whole correlation matrices, quasi-stationary patterns, referred to as market states, are seen by applying…
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…
Can trade integration induce product innovation? I document that countries that joined the European Union (EU) started producing more product varieties, investing more in R&D, and trading more compared to candidate countries that did not…
The emerging system at the European level can be conceptualized as a pattern of relations among member states that tends to be reproduced despite disturbances in individual trajectories. The Markov property is used as an indicator of…
We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271--2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output…
Core objectives of European common market integration are convergence and economic growth, but these are hampered by redundancy, and value chain asymmetries. The challenge is how to harmonize labor division to reach global competitiveness,…
This paper examines the evolution of business and consumer uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic in 32 European countries and the European Union (EU).Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric…
This paper proposes a two blocks and three regions economic geography model that can account for the most salient stylized facts experienced by Eastern European transition economies during the period 1990 2005. In contrast to the existing…
We investigate the dynamics of correlations present between pairs of industry indices of US stocks traded in US markets by studying correlation based networks and spectral properties of the correlation matrix. The study is performed by…
Effects connected with the world globalization affect also the financial markets. On a way towards quantifying the related characteristics we study the financial empirical correlation matrix of the 60 companies which both the Deutsche…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity…
Research and development (R&D) of countries play a major role in a long-term development of the economy. We measure the R&D efficiency of all 28 member countries of the European Union in the years 2008--2014. Super-efficient data…
We study the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and JP stocks during the period 1987-2004. We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behavior. These…
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade…
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's first and largest cap-and-trade carbon market, is a cornerstone of EU climate policy. This study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the EU carbon market's…
A new algorithm of the analysis of correlation among economy time series is proposed. The algorithm is based on the power law classification scheme (PLCS) followed by the analysis of the network on the percolation threshold (NPT). The…