Related papers: GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
The log-Gaussian Cox process is a flexible and popular class of point pattern models for capturing spatial and space-time dependence for point patterns. Model fitting requires approximation of stochastic integrals which is implemented…
We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…
This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…
Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to…
In this paper, we analyze the time-series of minute price returns on the Bitcoin market through the statistical models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family. Several mathematical models have been…
We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return…
Finding parametric models that accurately describe the dependence structure of observed data is a central task in the analysis of time series. Classical frequency domain methods provide a popular set of tools for fitting and diagnostics of…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
Stock market indices are volatile by nature, and sudden shocks are known to affect volatility patterns. The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) models neglect structural breaks triggered by…
We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…
This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…
Price range contains important information about the asset volatility, and has long been considered an important indicator for it. In this paper, we propose to jointly model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and introduce an…
Graphs are a key form of Big Data, and performing scalable analytics over them is invaluable to many domains. As our ability to collect data grows, there is an emerging class of inter-connected data which accumulates or varies over time,…
A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…
The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…
Integer-valued time series exist widely in economics, finance, biology, computer science, medicine, insurance, and many other fields. In recent years, many types of models have been proposed to model integer-valued time series data, in…
The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…
There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…
Accurately modeling time-continuous stochastic processes from irregular observations remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we leverage ideas from generative modeling of image data to push the boundary of time series generation.…