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Energy systems modeling frequently relies on time series data, whether observed or forecast. This is particularly the case, for example, in capacity planning models that use hourly production and load data forecast to occur over the coming…
In this paper we propose a novel arbitrary high order accurate semi-implicit space-time discontinuous Galerkin method for the solution of the two dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations on staggered unstructured triangular…
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
Multivariate $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ processes are introduced as a continuous-time models for multidimensional heteroskedastic observations. Our model is driven by a single multivariate L\'{e}vy process and the latent time-varying…
Despite the success of deep neural networks (DNNs) for real-world applications over time-series data such as mobile health, little is known about how to train robust DNNs for time-series domain due to its unique characteristics compared to…
Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over…
Modeling real-world multidimensional time series can be particularly challenging when these are sporadically observed (i.e., sampling is irregular both in time and across dimensions)-such as in the case of clinical patient data. To address…
We investigate nonequilibrium steady-state dynamics in both continuous- and discrete-state stochastic processes. Our analysis focuses on planar diffusion dynamics and their coarse-grained approximations by discrete-state Markov chains.…
Information-theoretic quantities play a crucial role in understanding non-linear relationships between random variables and are widely used across scientific disciplines. However, estimating these quantities remains an open problem,…
We introduce Interleaved Gibbs Diffusion (IGD), a novel generative modeling framework for discrete-continuous data, focusing on problems with important, implicit and unspecified constraints in the data. Most prior works on discrete and…
We propose a probabilistic model for refining coarse-grained spatial data by utilizing auxiliary spatial data sets. Existing methods require that the spatial granularities of the auxiliary data sets are the same as the desired granularity…
A new discrete-time shot noise Cox process for spatiotemporal data is proposed. The random intensity is driven by a dependent sequence of latent gamma random measures. Some properties of the latent process are derived, such as an…
Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have gained significant traction in the forecasting domain, especially for their capacity to simultaneously account for intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series relationships. This paper introduces a…
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…
In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
Time series often exhibit non-ergodic behaviour that complicates forecasting and inference. This article proposes a likelihood-based approach for estimating ergodicity transformations that addresses such challenges. The method is broadly…
Complex multivariate time series arise in many fields, ranging from computer vision to robotics or medicine. Often we are interested in the independent underlying factors that give rise to the high-dimensional data we are observing. While…
Optimization problems with continuous data appear in, e.g., robust machine learning, functional data analysis, and variational inference. Here, the target function is given as an integral over a family of (continuously) indexed target…