Related papers: GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
The bivariate copulas that describe the dependencies and partial dependencies of lagged variables in strictly stationary, first-order GARCH-type processes are investigated. It is shown that the copulas of symmetric GARCH processes are…
A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004) 601--622], is…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
We study the class of semi-Levy driven continuous-time GARCH, denoted by SLD-COGARCH, process. The statistical properties of this process are characterized. We show that the state process of such process can be described by a random…
We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
GARCH-type time series (characterized by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) exhibit pronounced volatility, autocorrelation, and heteroskedasticity. To address these challenges and enhance predictive accuracy, this…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
The majority of stylized facts of financial time series and several Value-at-Risk measures are modeled via univariate or multivariate GARCH processes. It is not rare that advanced GARCH models fail to converge for computational reasons, and…
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
This paper proposes a novel conditional heteroscedastic time series model by applying the framework of quantile regression processes to the ARCH(\infty) form of the GARCH model. This model can provide varying structures for conditional…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There…
Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (OGARCH) is widely used in finance industry to produce volatility and correlation forecasts. We show that the classic OGARCH model, nevertheless, tends to be too…
We address the challenges of modeling high-frequency integer price changes in financial markets using continuous distributions, particularly the Student's t-distribution. We demonstrate that traditional GARCH models, which rely on…
This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
Many real-world processes are trajectories that may be regarded as continuous-time "functional data". Examples include patients' biomarker concentrations, environmental pollutant levels, and prices of stocks. Corresponding advances in data…