Related papers: GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly…
Diffusion models have achieved huge empirical success in data generation tasks. Recently, some efforts have been made to adapt the framework of diffusion models to discrete state space, providing a more natural approach for modeling…
This work is devoted to the design of interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin (dG) schemes that preserve maximum principles at the discrete level for the steady transport and convection-diffusion problems and the respective transient…
Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…
This paper introduces a novel Ito diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data, which can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time non-linear exponential GARCH structure with log-integrated…
Study of instantaneous dependence among several variable is important in many of the high-dimensional sciences. Multivariate GARCH models are as a standard approach for modelling time-varying covariance matrix such phenomena. Cholesky GARCH…
A time-varying zero-inflated serially dependent Poisson process is proposed. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson Process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation. The…
The detection of periodic signals in irregularly-sampled time series is a problem commonly encountered in astronomy. Traditional tools used for periodic searches, such as the periodogram, have poorly defined statistical properties under…
Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…
Time-series calibrations often suggest that the GARCH diffusion model could also be a suitable candidate for option (risk-neutral) calibration. But unlike the popular Heston model, it lacks a fast, semi-analytic solution for the pricing of…
Coarse-graining techniques play a central role in reducing the complexity of stochastic models, and are typically characterised by a mapping which projects the full state of the system onto a smaller set of variables which captures the…
This note outlines a method for clustering time series based on a statistical model in which volatility shifts at unobserved change-points. The model accommodates some classical stylized features of returns and its relation to GARCH is…
In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…
Stochastic reduced-order models are widely used to represent the effective dynamics of complex systems, but estimating their drift and diffusion coefficients from data remains challenging. Standard approaches often rely on short-time…
Ergodic exploration has spawned a lot of interest in mobile robotics due to its ability to design time trajectories that match desired spatial coverage statistics. However, current ergodic approaches are for continuous spaces, which require…
In this paper, we revisit batch state estimation through the lens of Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider continuous-discrete estimation problems wherein a trajectory is viewed as a one-dimensional GP, with time as the independent…
This paper proposes a novel hybrid model, termed GARCH-FIS, for recursive rolling multi-step forecasting of financial time series. It integrates a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity…
Prevalent in many real-world settings such as healthcare, irregular time series are challenging to formulate predictions from. It is difficult to infer the value of a feature at any given time when observations are sporadic, as it could…
The log returns of financial time series are usually modeled by means of the stationary GARCH(1,1) stochastic process or its generalizations which can not properly describe the nonstationary deterministic components of the original series.…
We investigate stochastic averaging theory for locally Lipschitz discrete-time nonlinear systems with stochastic perturbation and its applications to convergence analysis of discrete-time stochastic extremum seeking algorithms. Firstly, by…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…