Related papers: SST and North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall: …
An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures…
The spatiotemporal variation in tropical air-sea interaction is investigated by applying a simple model that considers the fundamental dynamics in tropical oceans. The model decomposes sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) variation into a…
Power spectra of global surface temperature (GST) records reveal major periodicities at about 9.1, 10-11, 19-22 and 59-62 years. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), to be used in the IPCC…
Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year?…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…
Understanding droughts in a climate context remains a major challenge. Over the United States, different choices of observations and metrics have often produced diametrically opposite insights. This paper focuses on understanding and…
Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward-equatorward migrations over centennial to millennial…
The steady response of the stratosphere to a sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is considered in two separate theoretical models. It is first shown that anomalies in SST impose a geopotential anomaly at the tropopause. Solutions to the…
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
We demonstrate an alternative correlation between the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature variation to that shown by McLean et al. [2009]. We show 50% of the variation in RATPAC-A tropospheric temperature (and 54%…
Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the…
This study explores the mechanisms behind anomalous positive and negative rainfall events in the southeastern United States (SEUS), emphasizing the interplay between upper-level large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and the lower-level…
Projections of storm surge return levels are a basic requirement for effective management of coastal risks. A common approach to estimate hazards posed by extreme sea levels is to use a statistical model, which may use a time series of a…
We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…
The predictability of fields at the ocean surface in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is investigated through five ensembles of regional ocean simulations between 2014 and 2016. The ensembles explore two horizontal resolutions and…