Related papers: SST and North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall: …
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
I propose a new conceptual framework to disentangle the impacts of weather and climate on economic activity and growth: A stochastic frontier model with climate in the production frontier and weather shocks as a source of inefficiency. I…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
We explore hurricane and ocean reanalysis data to understand how rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones is impacted by the upper ocean density structure, with an emphasis on barrier layer (BL) thickness and thermocline depth in the…
As tropical cyclones become more intense due to climate change, the rise of Al-based modelling provides a more affordable and accessible approach compared to traditional methods based on mathematical models. This work leverages generative…
A time-variable 1D photochemical model is used to study the distribution of stratospheric hydrocarbons as a function of altitude, latitude, and season on Uranus and Neptune. The results for Neptune indicate that in the absence of…
The climate version Eta CCS, prepared from the NCEP Eta forecast model, was integrated over South America for the period from January 1979 to December 1983. The model was driven by the two sets of boundary conditions derived from the…
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) and pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a period of 2-7 years. As the largest mode of interannual variability on Earth, ENSO shapes…
Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in northern Asia, Europe and North America have been found to cool…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
In the last 25 years there has been an important increase in the amount of data collected from animal-mounted sensors (bio-probes), which are often used to study the animals' behaviour or environment. We focus here on an example of the…
A reliable tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is the key to assessing historical and future changes in TC activities. While global TC records have been systematically maintained since the early 1940s, substantial uncertainties remain for the…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
The formation of Middle Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs) that are responsible for a large portion of annual precipitation and extreme rainfall events over western India is studied using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and cyclone…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Depending on the region of maximal warming,…
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…