Related papers: SST and North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall: …
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
Tropical cyclones occur over the Earth's tropical oceans, with characteristic genesis regions and tracks tied to the warm ocean surface that provides energy to sustain these storms. The study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution on Earth…
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms. Thus, to increase flood…
Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…
Tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories are governed by large-scale steering flows with sensitive dependence on initial conditions, raising the question of whether targeted perturbations can induce track deviations. We present a case study…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…
Recent research has suggested that the overall dependence of convection near coasts on large-scale atmospheric conditions is weaker than over the open ocean or inland areas. This is due to the fact that in coastal regions convection is…
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…
Accurate estimates of historical changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and their uncertainties are important for documenting and understanding historical changes in climate. A source of uncertainty that has not previously been…
Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to…
We study the occurrence of events, subject to threshold, in a representative SOC sandpile model and in high-resolution rainfall data. The predictability in both systems is analyzed by means of a decision variable sensitive to event…
Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a…