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The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) proceeds by assuming that the present is one of the jumping times. Under this restrictive assumption integral equations for the propagator and mean escape times have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-07-17 Javier Villarroel , Miquel Montero

We consider a generalization of the classical risk model when the premium intensity depends on the current surplus of an insurance company. All surplus is invested in the risky asset, the price of which follows a geometric Brownian motion.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-28 Yuliya Mishura , Mykola Perestyuk , Olena Ragulina

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-26 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Christian Robert , Jef Teugels

We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes. Firstly we consider the main version which is a renewal process; we also present large deviation estimates for the ruin probabilities of an insurance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-26 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

The present work concerns the finite-time ruin probabilities for several bidimensional risk models with constant interest force and correlated Brownian motions.} Under the condition that the two Brownian motions $\{B_1(t), t\ge 0\}$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Dan Zhu , Ming Zhou , Chuancun Yin

We study the gambler's ruin problem for the Elephant Random Walk, focusing on escape time from a symmetric interval of the form $\{-N, \ldots, N\}$. As our main result, we derive tight exponential bounds for the tail of this escape time. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Morgan André , Leonel Zuaznábar

The goal of this article is to study the limit of the empirical distribution induced by a mutation-selection multi-allelic Moran model, whose dynamic is given by a continuous-time irreducible Markov chain. The rate matrix driving the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Bertrand Cloez , Josué Corujo

In this paper, we prove the power-law in time upper bound for the diffusion of a 1D discrete nonlinear Anderson model. We remove completely the decaying condition restricted on the nonlinearity of Bourgain-Wang (Ann. of Math. Stud. 163:…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Hongzi Cong , Yunfeng Shi

For an arbitrary diffusion process $X$ with time-homogeneous drift and variance parameters $\mu(x)$ and $\sigma^2(x)$, let $V_\varepsilon$ be $1/\varepsilon$ times the total time $X(t)$ spends in the strip…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Nils Lid Hjort , Rafail Zalmonovich Khasminskii

Consider a surplus process which both of collected premium and payed claim size are two independent compound Poisson processes. This article derives two approximated formulas for the ruin probability of such surplus process, say double…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-20 Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi , Dan Kucerovsky

In this text, we establish the risk model based on AR(1) series and propose the basic model which has a dependent structure under intensity of claim number. Considering some properties of the risk model, we take advantage of newton…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-10-31 Wenhao Li , Bolong Wang , Tianxiang Shen , Ronghua Zhu , Dehui Wang

A previously introduced real space renormalization-group treatment of the random transverse-field Ising spin chain is extended to provide detailed information on the distribution of the energy gap and the end-to-end correlation function for…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 Daniel S. Fisher , A. P. Young

We consider radial decreasing solutions of the semilinear heat equation with exponential nonlinearity. We provide a relatively simple proof of the sharp upper estimates for the final blowup profile and for the refined space-time behavior.…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-04-30 Philippe Souplet

We study modified ruin probabilities in a Cram\'er-Lundberg model driven by a compound mixed Poisson process. In the heavy-tailed regime, if the integrated claim-size distribution is subexponential and the upper endpoint of the mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Noriyoshi Sakuma , Momoka Tashiro

We consider in this paper a risk reserve process where the claims and gains arrive according to two independent Poisson processes. While the gain sizes are phase-type distributed, we assume instead that the claim sizes are phase-type…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Zbigniew Palmowski , Eleni Vatamidou

We propose an individual claims reserving model based on the conditional Aalen-Johansen estimator, as developed in Bladt and Furrer (2023b). In our approach, we formulate a multi-state problem, where the underlying variable is the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-04 Martin Bladt , Gabriele Pittarello

The distribution of return intervals of extreme events is studied in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it has been analyzed the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 Cecilia Pennetta

The ruin probability in the classical Brownian risk model can be explicitly calculated for both finite and infinite-time horizon. This is not the case for the simultaneous ruin probability in two-dimensional Brownian risk model. Resorting…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-13 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Zbigniew Michna

The Jensen's inequality plays a crucial role in the analysis of time-delay and sampled-data systems. Its conservatism is studied through the use of the Gr\"{u}ss Inequality. It has been reported in the literature that fragmentation (or…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-04-06 Corentin Briat

In this paper, we consider the distribution of the supremum of non-stationary Gaussian processes, and present a new theoretical result on the asymptotic behaviour of this distribution. Unlike previously known facts in this field, our main…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Valentin Konakov , Vladimir Panov , Vladimir Piterbarg