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The paper deals with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dependence structures between claim sizes and inter-claim times as well as premium sizes and inter-premium times are modeled by…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Olena Ragulina

In this contribution we study asymptotics of the simultaneous Parisian ruin probability of a two-dimensional fractional Brownian motion risk process. This risk process models the surplus processes of an insurance and a reinsurance…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-22 Grigori Jasnovidov , Aleksandr Shemendyuk

We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Francesca Scarabel , Harry Coldwell , Tyler Cassidy

We introduce three models of fragmentation in which the largest fragment in the system can be broken at each time step with a fixed probability, p. We solve these models exactly in the long time limit to reveal stable time invariant…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-06-25 G J Rodgers , M K Hassan

We prove that the joint distribution of the occupation time ratios for ergodic transformations preserving an infinite measure converges to a multidimensional version of Lamperti's generalized arcsine distribution, in the sense of strong…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-19 Toru Sera , Kouji Yano

The distribution of waiting times until the occurrence of a critical event is a crucial statistical problem across several disciplines in Science. In this work we present a statistical model in which a relevant quantity X accumulates until…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-12 Vivianne Olguín-Arias , Sergio Davis , Gonzalo Gutiérrez

Kramers escape rate in the overdamped systems with the power-law distribution is studied. By using the mean first passage time, we derive the escape rate for the power-law distribution and obtain the Kramers' infinite barrier escape rate in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-08-10 Yanjun Zhou , Jiulin Du

The problem of randomly forced Burgers turbulence ("Burgulence") is considered in terms of the toy Gaussian Larkin model of directed polymers. In terms of the replica technique the explicit expressions for the two-time four-point free…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-23 Victor Dotsenko

We study multidimensional Cram\'er-Lundberg risk processes where agents, located on a large sparse network, receive losses form their neighbors. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, we introduce classification of agents according to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-15 Hamed Amini , Zhongyuan Cao , Andreea Minca , Agnès Sulem

The paper investigates a discrete time Binomial risk model with different types of polices and shock events may influence some of the claim sizes. It is shown that this model can be considered as a particular case of the classical compound…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-12 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Evelina Veleva

We present a number of important identities related to the excursion theory of linear diffusions. In particular, excursions straddling an independent exponential time are studied in detail. Letting the parameter of the exponential time tend…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paavo Salminen , Pierre Vallois , Marc Yor

Incurred but not reported (IBNR) loss reserving is an important issue for Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers. The modeling of the claim arrival process, especially its temporal dependence, has not been closely examined in many of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-22 Andrei L. Badescu , X. Sheldon Lin , Dameng Tang

By convention, and even more often, as an unintentional consequence of design, time distributions of latency and infectious durations in stochastic epidemic simulations are often exponential. The skewed distribtion typically leads to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-12-18 Martin Camitz , Ake Svensson

The aim of this paper is to construct the confidence interval of the ultimate ruin probability under the insurance surplus driven by a L\'evy process. Assuming a parametric family for the L\'evy measures, we estimate the parameter from the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-15 Yasutaka Shimizu

We point out that the construction of a martingale observable describing the spin interface of the two-dimensional Ising model extends to a class of non-integrable variants of the two-dimensional Ising model, and express it in terms of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-10-18 Rafael L. Greenblatt , Eveliina Peltola

We present a backward diffusion flow (i.e. a backward-in-time stochastic differential equation) whose marginal distribution at any (earlier) time is equal to the smoothing distribution when the terminal state (at a latter time) is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-04 Brian D. O. Anderson , Adrian N. Bishop , Pierre Del Moral , Camille Palmier

This paper investigates the second order asymptotic expansion for tail probabilities of discounted aggregate claims in continuous-time renewal risk models with constant interest force. Concretely, two types of continuous-time renewal risk…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-07 Bingzhen Genga , Shijie Wanga , Yang Yang

We apply a simple method to provide explicit expressions for different scaling exponents in intermittent fully developed turbulence, that before were only given through a Legendre transform. This includes predictability exponents for…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 Francois G Schmitt

This paper re-examines the density for sums of independent exponential, Erlang and gamma random variables. By using a divided difference perspective, the paper provides a unified approach to finding closed-form formulae for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Edmond Levy

We study the continuous limit of a multibox Erhenfest urn model proposed before by the authors. The evolution of the resulting continuous system is governed by a differential equation, which describes a diffusion process on a circle with a…

Atomic Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Pi-Gang Luan , Yee-Mou Kao