Related papers: Extreme Value Theory and the Solar Cycle

The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Waiting time distributions of solar flares and {\sl coronal mass ejections (CMEs)} exhibit power law-like distribution functions with slopes in the range of $\alpha_{\tau} \approx 1.4-3.2$, as observed in annual data sets during 4 solar…

For non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems we consider the time series of maxima along typical orbits. Using ideas based upon quantitative recurrence time statistics we prove convergence of the maxima (under suitable normalization) to…

We present a hybrid forecasting strategy that combines numerical modeling, statistical forecasting, and machine learning methods to predict enhanced bursts of solar activity. These bursts, referred to here as space weather seasons, occur on…

The Waldmeier Effect is the observation that the rise time of a sunspot cycle varies inversely with the cycle amplitude: strong cycles rise to their maximum faster than weak cycles. The shape of the cycle and thus the rise time does not…

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…

Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative…

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…

In this paper, we provide finite sample results to assess the consistency of Generalized Pareto regression trees, as tools to perform extreme value regression. The results that we provide are obtained from concentration inequalities, and…

I propose a new procedure to estimate the False Alarm Probability, the measure of significance for peaks of periodograms. The key element of the new procedure is the use of generalized extreme-value distributions, the limiting distribution…

When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…

We investigate extreme value theory of a class of random sequences defined by the all-time suprema of aggregated self-similar Gaussian processes with trend. This study is motivated by its potential applications in various areas and its…

Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…

We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…

The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…

We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…