Related papers: Extreme Value Theory and the Solar Cycle
In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems. In this setting, recent works have shown how to get a statistics of extremes in agreement with the classical Extreme…
We develop methods, based on extreme value theory, for analysing observations in the tails of longitudinal data, i.e., a data set consisting of a large number of short time series, which are typically irregularly and non-simultaneously…
Recently Pop ({\it Solar Phys.} {\bf 276}, 351, 2012) identified a Laplace (or double exponential) distribution in the number of days with a given absolute value in the change over a day, in sunspot number, for days on which the sunspot…
We present evidence that $>25$ MeV solar proton events show a clustering in time at intervals of $\approx$ six months that persisted during the rising and peak phases of Solar Cycle 24. This phenomenon is most clearly demonstrated by…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…
We present the winning strategy for the EVA2025 Data Challenge, which aimed to estimate the probability of extreme precipitation events. These events occurred at most once in the dataset making the challenge fundamentally one of…
Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…
The distribution of return intervals of extreme events is studied in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it has been analyzed the statistics of the return intervals of extreme values…
Extreme Solar Energetic Particle Events (ESPEs) were identified almost a decade ago, providing context for super events unleashed by our host star, the Sun. Their assumed solar origin drives the question of their ``worst-case" impact, which…
The main results of the extreme value theory developed for the investigation of the observables of dynamical systems rely, up to now, on the Gnedenko approach. In this framework, extremes are basically identified with the block maxima of…
This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…
Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles and show different patterns of occurrence…
Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. $r$-Pareto processes are mathematically…
The combined Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during 1874-2013 are analyzed and studied the relatively long-term variations in the annual sums of the areas of sunspot groups in 0-10 deg, 10-20 deg, and…
Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on…
We analyze the occurrence frequency distributions of peak fluxes $P$, total fluxes $E$, and durations $T$ of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980--2010) from hard X-ray data of HXRBS/SMM, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. From…
A coupling method is developed for univariate extreme value theory , providing an alternative to the use of the tail empirical/quantile processes. Emphasizing the Peak-over-Threshold approach that approximates the distribution above high…