Related papers: Extreme Value Theory and the Solar Cycle

The short-term periodicities of the daily sunspot area fluctuations from August 1923 to October 1933 are discussed. For these data the correlative analysis indicates negative correlation for the periodicity of about 155 days, but the power…

The three-parameter generalized extreme value distribution arises from classical univariate extreme value theory and is in common use for analyzing the far tail of observed phenomena. Curiously, important asymptotic properties of…

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for modelling the distribution of demand-net-of-wind for capacity adequacy assessment. Extreme value theory approaches are well-established and mathematically justified methods for…

Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…

The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with duration in the range of 20-250 years. Five type of data series are used: 1) The Zurich series (1749-2009), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri; 2)…

Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) are known to be unpredictable in time and position. A few (observationally) exceptional events have been observed, as GRB221009A that stands out for its fluence and peak flux, being orders of magnitude higher than…

Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…

The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one…

We present a comprehensive analysis of Solar Cycle 25 aimed at precisely constraining the interval of its activity maximum using multiple observational parameters: sunspot number (SSN), Wolf number, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the…

Extreme solar particle events reveal that the Sun can occasionally produce eruptions significantly more energetic than those observed in the modern era. These events are thought to originate from powerful coronal mass ejections, typically…

In this study, we used two methods to investigate the periodic behavior of sunspot counts in four categories for the time period January 1986-October 2013. These categories include the counts from simple (A and B), medium (C), large (D, E,…

Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme…

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…

Aims. In this paper, we aim to study the time dependence of sunspot group areas in a large sample composed of various databases spanning over 130 years, used state-of-the-art statistical methods. Methods. For a carefully selected but…

Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…