Economics

Students from different socioeconomic backgrounds exhibit persistent gaps in test scores, gaps that can translate into unequal educational and labor-market outcomes later in life. In many assessments, performance reflects not only what…

Consider a setup in which a decision maker is informed about the population by a finite sample and based on that sample has to decide whether or not to apply a certain treatment. We work out finite sample minimax regret treatment rules…

We propose a new method to estimate structural parameters in multi-way networks while controlling for rich structures of fixed effects. The method is based on a series of classification tasks and is agnostic to both the number and structure…

We study a moral hazard problem with adverse selection: a risk-neutral agent can directly control the output distribution and possess private information about the production environment. The principal designs a menu of contracts satisfying…

In this paper, we study causal inference when the treatment variable is an aggregation of multiple sub-treatment variables. Researchers often report marginal causal effects for the aggregated treatment, implicitly assuming that the target…

This paper uses register-based data to analyze the consequences of a recent major Danish welfare reform for children's academic performance and well-being. In addition to work requirements, the reform brought about considerable reductions…

In many applications, the parameter of interest involves a simplex-valued weight which is identified as a solution to an optimization problem. Examples include synthetic control methods with group-level weights and various methods of model…

Local polynomial density (LPD) estimators are widely used for inference on boundary features of the density function. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that kernel choice substantially affects efficiency. Theory, simulations, and…

Panel local projection (LP) with fixed-effects (FE) is widely adopted for evaluating the economic consequences of financial crises across countries. This paper highlights a fundamental methodological issue: the presence of the Nickell bias…

We study how nonlinear, state-dependent health dynamics shape economic behavior, inequality, and the evaluation of disability insurance at older ages. Using English panel data, we construct a continuous health index and estimate its…

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct…

We study optimal rating design under moral hazard and strategic manipulation. An intermediary observes a noisy indicator of effort and commits to a rating policy that shapes market beliefs and pay. We characterize optimal ratings via…

This study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Large Language Model (LLM) with a Transformer architecture for stock price forecasting. The research addresses a critical theoretical gap in existing approaches…

Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that…

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to…

We consider a generalized method of moments framework in which a part of the data vector is missing for some units in a completely unrestricted, potentially endogenous way. In this setup, the parameters of interest are usually only…

Why do maladaptive perceptions and norms, such as zero-sum interpretations of interaction, persist even when they undermine cooperation and investment? We develop a framework where bounded rationality and heterogeneous cognitive biases…

We study the optimal design of relational contracts that incentivize an expert to share specialized knowledge with a novice. While the expert fears that a more knowledgeable novice may later erode his future rents, a third-party principal…

We study network revenue management problems motivated by applications such as railway ticket sales and hotel room bookings. Requests, each requiring a resource for a consecutive stay, arrive sequentially with known arrival probabilities.…

This paper proposes a framework to analyze the effects of counterfactual policies on the unconditional quantiles of an outcome variable. For a given counterfactual policy, we obtain identified sets for the effect of both marginal and global…