Economics
Standard estimators in information provision experiments place more weight on individuals who update their beliefs more in response to new information. This paper shows that, in practice, these individuals who update the most have the…
We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…
This study proposes a recursive and easy-to-implement algorithm to compute the score and Hessian matrix in general regime-switching models. We use simulation to compare the asymptotic variance estimates constructed from the Hessian matrix…
We study the typical structure of games in terms of their connectivity properties. A game is said to be `connected' if it has a pure Nash equilibrium and the property that there is a best-response path from every action profile which is not…
A sender first publicly commits to an experiment and then can privately run additional experiments and selectively disclose their outcomes to a receiver. The sender has private information about the maximal number of additional experiments…
This paper presents a modeling framework for simulating the decision-making processes of artificial farms populating an agent-based model for the Italian wheat production system. The decision process is based on a mathematical programming…
Interference or spillover effects arise when an individual's outcome (e.g., health) is influenced not only by their own treatment (e.g., vaccination) but also by the treatment of others, creating challenges for evaluating treatment effects.…
High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…
Event studies often conflate direct treatment effects with indirect effects operating through endogenous covariate adjustment. We develop a dynamic panel event study framework that separates these effects. The framework allows for…
Empirical models of demand for differentiated products rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns. These representations are increasingly proxied by applying ML methods to high-dimensional, unstructured…
This paper develops a unified framework for analyzing technology adoption in financial networks that incorporates spatial spillovers, network externalities, and their interaction. The framework characterizes adoption dynamics through a…
A decision rule is epsilon-minimax if it is minimax up to an additive factor epsilon. We present an algorithm for provably obtaining epsilon-minimax solutions for a class of statistical decision problems. In particular, we are interested in…
We study a robust contract design problem with deferred inspection, in which a principal allocates a scarce resource to an agent, observes the agent's realized outcome ex post at negligible cost, and conditions transfers on this information…
Large language models, trained on personal data, are increasingly able to mimic individual personalities. These ``AI clones'' or ``AI agents'' have the potential to transform how people search for matches in contexts ranging from marriage…
We develop Probabilistic Targeted Factor Analysis (PTFA), a likelihood-based framework for constructing latent factors that are explicitly targeted to variables of economic interest. PTFA provides a probabilistic foundation for Partial…
In many rural areas of low- and middle-income countries, weekly gatherings of buyers and sellers are the most tangible manifestation of the market economy. Knowing these markets' whereabouts and activity over time could provide insights in…
Miscalibrated beliefs are widely viewed as compromising the quality of employees' decisions. Why, then, might an organization prefer to hire an individual known to be overconfident? This paper develops a theory of organizational demand for…
Many workers value purpose and meaning in their jobs alongside income, and firms need to align these preferences with profit goals. This paper develops a dynamic model in which firms invest in purpose to enhance job meaning and motivate…
Second-hand markets have expanded rapidly with the growth of online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platforms. A key feature of C2C markets is that sellers are typically non-professionals and often face uncertainty about the quality of the goods…
Given the recent targeting of Chinese scientists by the Department of Justice and sizable contributions of Chinese scientists to American science, it is urgent to investigate the presence and the particulars of anti-Chinese discrimination…