Economics

Panel data often contain stayers (units with no within-variations) and slow movers (units with little within-variations). In the presence of many slow movers, conventional econometric methods can fail to work. We propose a novel method of…

Carbon taxes are increasingly popular among policymakers but remain politically contentious. A key challenge relates to their distributional impacts; the extent to which tax burdens differ across population groups. As a response, a growing…

Generative AI systems often display highly uneven performance across tasks that appear ``nearby'': they can be excellent on one prompt and confidently wrong on another with only small changes in wording or context. We call this phenomenon…

This note revisits the analysis of third-degree price discrimination developed by Bergemann et al. (2015), which characterizes the set of consumer-producer surplus pairs that can be achieved through market segmentation. This was proved by…

Forecasting entails a complex estimation challenge, as it requires balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Traditional forecast optimization criteria typically focus on a single metric -- such as minimizing the…

In normative models a decision-maker is usually assumed to be Bayesian rational, and so to maximize subjective expected utility, within a complete and correctly specified decision model. Following the discussion in Hammond (2007) of…

This paper formalizes a widely used dynamical class--replicator-mutator dynamics and Price-style selection-and-transmission--and makes explicit the modeling choices (scale, atomic unit, interaction topology, transmission kernel) that…

We propose a method for estimating long-term treatment effects with many short-term proxy outcomes: a central challenge when experimenting on digital platforms. We formalize this challenge as a latent variable problem where observed proxies…

A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a…

We consider the extent to which we can learn from a completely randomized experiment whether all individuals have treatment effects that are weakly of the same sign, a condition we call monotonicity. From a classical sampling perspective,…

Do Ethereum's Layer-2 (L2) rollups actually decongest the Layer-1 (L1) mainnet once protocol upgrades and demand are held constant? Using a 1245-day daily panel from August 5, 2021 to December 31, 2024 that spans the London, Merge, and…

We propose a new approach to estimate selection-corrected quantiles of the gender wage gap. Our method employs instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent variable but, conditional on the latent process, do not directly…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

This paper estimates the causal effect of EU cohesion policy on regional output and investment, focusing on the Cohesion Fund (CF), a comparatively understudied instrument. Departing from standard approaches such as regression discontinuity…

I study an election between two ideologically polarized parties that are both office- and policy-motivated. The parties compete by proposing policies on a single issue. The analysis uncovers a non-monotonic relationship between ideological…

Do home prices incorporate flood risk in the immediate aftermath of specific flood events, or is it the repeated exposure over the years that plays a more significant role? We address this question through the first systematic study of the…

We propose a new estimator for nonparametric binary choice models that does not impose a parametric structure on either the systematic function of covariates or the distribution of the error term. A key advantage of our approach is its…

Discrete choice models (DCMs) have been widely utilized in various scientific fields, especially economics, for many years. These models consider a stochastic environment influencing each decision maker's choices. Extensive research has…

We study the estimation of causal effects on group-level parameters identified from microdata (e.g., child penalties). We demonstrate that standard one-step methods (such as pooled OLS and IV regressions) are generally inconsistent due to…

This study finds exact closed-form solutions for compensating variation (CV) and equivalent variation (EV) for both marginal and non-marginal changes in public goods given homothetic, but non-separable, utility where a single sufficient…