Economics

We devise a difference-in-difference study design to assess the impact of fare-free bus service in Alexandria, located in the Washington, DC metro area. Our surveys show modest to no effect, with at most 6% more residents in Alexandria…

Dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models have found widespread application in marketing. However, estimating these becomes challenging in "big data" settings with high-dimensional state-action spaces. To address this challenge, this paper…

Sports are one of the most significant products of the entertainment industry, accounting for a large portion of all television (and even platform) viewing. Consequently, the sale of broadcasting and media rights is the most important…

The 2023 U.S. banking crisis propagated not through direct financial linkages but through a high-frequency, information-based contagion channel. This paper moves beyond exploration analysis to test the "too-similar-to-fail" hypothesis,…

This paper studies state-dependent local projections (LPs). First, I establish a general characterization of their estimand: under minimal assumptions, state-dependent LPs recover weighted averages of causal effects. This holds for…

Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…

This paper studies preference aggregation under risk. In our model, each agent has an incomplete preference relation represented by a set of expected utility functions. The classical Pareto principle is silent on agreement involving…

Normal care units (NCU) placement affects health outcomes. NCUs in a hospital have different specialisations. There are patients that can potentially stay in multiple different NCUs. On a given day the NCUs are on different utilisation…

This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for incomplete structural models, termed distribution-matching posterior inference (DMPI). Extending the minimal econometric interpretation (MEI), DMPI constructs a divergence-based…

Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I…

Socioeconomic integration is a critical dimension of social equity, yet persistent disparities remain in access to health insurance, education, and employment across different demographic groups. While previous studies have examined…

This study introduces the Digital Competitiveness Index for Trade (DCIT), a composite metric integrating ICT readiness, broadband adoption, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, and trade volume to assess…

This research analyses the axiomatic link among health expenditures, inflation rate, and gross national income (GNI) per capita concerning the child mortality (CMU5) rate in D-8 nations, employing panel data analysis from 1995 to 2014.…

This study examines how interest rate caps affect the demand for payday loans, using aggregate data from British Columbia (2012--2019) during which the province's maximum fee was reduced from $23 to $17 and then to \$15 per $100 borrowed.…

In this paper we consider two generalizations of Lancaster's (Review of Economic Studies, 2002) Modified Maximum Likelihood estimator (MMLE) for the panel AR(1) model with fixed effects, arbitrary initial conditions, and strictly exogenous…

We model stochastic choices with categorization. The agent preliminarly groups alternatives in homogenous disjoint classes, then randomly chooses one class and randomly picks an item within the selected class. We give a formal definition of…

This paper considers the problem of inference after ranking. In our setting, we are interested in any population whose rank according to some random quantity, such as an estimated treatment effect, a measure of value-added, or benefit (net…

Climate change has emerged as a significant global concern, attracting increasing attention worldwide. While green bubbles may be examined through a social bubble hypothesis, it is essential not to neglect a Climate Minsky moment triggered…

Startups face a classic dilemma in innovation strategy: should they pursue cumulative, low-risk improvements or disruptive, high-risk breakthroughs? The Henderson and Clark framework suggests that architectural innovation, which…