Economics
This paper studies inference for time-series GMM when uncertainty comes from shock assignment within a realized historical episode. Rather than treating the data as one random draw from a population of hypothetical economies, the framework…
Goto and Nakada (2026) showed that the Baldwin rule can be characterized using Neutrality}, Bottom Consistency, Faithfulness, Cancellation and Bottom Independence. While their proof relies on the technique of linear algebra and graph…
Universities, funders, investors, and policy agencies often need to identify research with translational relevance before patents, licenses, startups, or industry collaborations are visible. This study introduces the Translation Readiness…
Decision-makers often rely on multiple probabilistic forecasts that are individually calibrated but need not be fully informative. We develop a framework for aggregating such forecasts when the decision-maker knows only that experts satisfy…
This paper proves a sum-minimization characterization of Pareto efficient insurance with multiple policyholders, multiple insurers, and multiple indemnity environments. We also provide a result regarding the pairwise implementability of the…
This paper analyzes the internal organization and economic effects of a bid-rigging cartel in the road construction sector of the Swiss canton of Ticino, active from 1999 to 2005. Using exceptionally rich documentary evidence, we…
This paper studies whether news about banks' balance sheets propagates to aggregate financial conditions and macroeconomic activity. We construct high-frequency Canadian bank net-worth shocks using stock-price reactions around earnings…
Many collective decisions under risk are made by people who care about different parts of the outcome distribution: downside losses, typical performance, or upside gains. This paper models this disagreement with quantile preferences and…
Macroeconomic expectations are usually observed through point forecasts or through asset prices whose mapping into beliefs is model-dependent. This paper uses prediction-market prices to recover high-frequency distributions of short-run…
This paper develops misspecification-robust sensitivity and informativeness diagnostics for GMM estimators, evaluated at pseudo-true values. The sensitivity matrix nests that of Andrews, Gentzkow, and Shapiro (2017) under correct…
We present a revealed preference characterization of the discounted expected utility model with a concave utility function. The characterization offers a nonparametric test of the model. We apply the test to an experimental data set in the…
Effective congestion management strategies require a detailed understanding of how travellers respond to different pricing interventions. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of traveller behaviour under congestion pricing scenarios,…
We develop a factor-model framework for causal inference in panels with policy interventions. Treatment effects are represented as structural changes in treated units' exposure to latent common shocks and, in extensions, changes in the…
Global supply chains are highly interconnected, making them vulnerable to cascading disruptions induced by trade policy shocks. Understanding how such disruptions propagate through production networks, and how mitigation mechanisms such as…
Computing optimal policy in heterogeneous-agent economies is complicated by the possibility of multiple equilibria. We overcome this difficulty by showing that when the equilibrium manifold has a low-dimensional Negishi-weight…
Nonaka emphasized that innovation is the result of a continuous back-and-forth between tacit and explicit knowledge. Artificial intelligence introduces a fundamentally new object into this process -- tacit machine knowledge -- but Nonaka's…
Travel behavior and demand modeling seeks to understand the factors that motivate transportation decisions. At the same time, the field is increasingly adopting algorithmic and artificial intelligence (AI) tools that improve predictive…
This article reconstructs the economic and social history of Bolivian neoliberalism and evaluates whether economic liberalization reduced or increased poverty and inequality in Bolivia. The historical argument is that the Bolivian…
We study estimation of the mean slope in heterogeneous panels that combine cross-sectional dependence from unobserved common factors with unit-specific structural breaks occurring at different dates. We organize the available…
The healthcare sector contributes approximately 4.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet research on the organizational determinants of sustainable behaviors among healthcare workers remains limited. This study examines how green…