Economics
We show that net demand for liquidity by algo strategies is identifiable from its trade and price history alone, with no knowledge of its signal or optimization problem. An exact multi-period regret decomposition implies that the sign of…
This paper studies how topping up -- allowing recipients of in-kind transfers to supplement subsidized consumption in a private market -- affects optimal redistribution. Consumers can access a competitive private market, while a social…
Consider an analyst interested in predicting the size of an effect. She has identified a set of prior published studies of similar effects. We provide a toolkit for (i) summarizing the prior literature, (ii) making predictions of effects in…
We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal contamination, as the model may have seen the realized values…
We introduce a moral hazard model in which public information about a payoff-relevant state arrives over time, an agent decides when to make an irreversible investment, and a principal commits to a state-contingent policy to incentivize…
The competitive equilibrium of general equilibrium theory exists as a fixed point and is, by the theorys own results on aggregate excess demand, in general silent on whether that fixed point is unique, stable, or attained. This paper takes…
Machine learning (ML) has rapidly transformed economic history, lowering costs of digitization, data linkage, and imputation, and making information in historical text usable at scale. This paper offers a practical guide to using these…
In many matching markets, agents care not only about their own partners but also about the matches formed by others. With externalities, stability depends on what agents believe would happen after a deviation. We introduce rationalizable…
This paper provides a toolkit for the study of distributional treatment effects (DTEs) focused on treatment-effect discontinuities defined as points where marginal distributional effects change sign. Building on the Treatment Effects Curve…
China's electric-vehicle (EV) sales share rose from about 1% in 2015 to roughly 45% in 2024. We evaluate this technology transition with an equilibrium differentiated-products model of the Chinese auto market, and quantify both its…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as stand-ins in behavioural games. These stand-ins rely on the assumption that the LLM's distribution of choices meaningfully matches how humans play the same game. This study tests that…
We use web search data to construct monthly indexes of derived demand for cobalt, copper, and nickel, which are key inputs in technologies driving the energy and digital transitions. We incorporate these indexes into Structural Vector…
The 2024 Department of Justice antitrust complaint against RealPage, Inc. named five major residential REITs for coordinating algorithmic rent pricing across hundreds of thousands of apartment units in major US metropolitan areas. This…
We propose a mathematical framework for redistricting compactness grounded in the classical soap bubble problem: the partition of a planar region into N subregions of prescribed population that minimizes total shared boundary length. This…
Match-fixing undermines the integrity of sport by eroding public trust and threatening the financial sustainability of clubs and leagues. The global expansion of sports betting markets has created new incentives and opportunities for…
Less-salient taxes can ease the classic equality-efficiency trade-off by making people respond less to taxation. But deliberately obscuring taxes may be viewed as dishonest. This creates a three-way trade-off between equality, efficiency,…
Do workers always work more for more? We investigate how intertemporal and uncompensated labor supply decisions change across observational and experimental windows, within the same workers. Combining a real-effort emoji-counting experiment…
We estimate long-run effects of Cuba's 1961 National Health Service and contemporaneous National Literacy Campaign using synthetic-control methods on newly assembled series for 21 former European colonies in the Americas, 1900--2022.…
We examine how the empirical content of revealed preference theory depends on the dimensionality of the choice environment. While higher-dimensional choice problems may appear more demanding, we show that revealed preference restrictions…
Residual-based goodness-of-fit tests for parametric time-series models are often complicated by parameter-estimation effects, which can alter the limiting behavior of diagnostic statistics. We propose a sample-splitting generalized spectral…