Economics
This paper considers the problem of estimating the variance of a sum of a triangular array of random vectors with heterogeneous means. When random vectors exhibit two-way cluster dependence or weak dependence, standard variance estimators…
We study optimization problems in which a linear functional is maximized over probability measures that are dominated by a given measure according to an integral stochastic order in an arbitrary dimension. We show that the following four…
Design-based simulations - procedures that hold realized outcomes fixed and generate variation by resampling treatment assignment or shocks - are widely used in both methodological and applied work to assess inference procedures. This paper…
Geopolitics is shaped by trade and borders. We develop a general-equilibrium model in which both are endogenously determined in a linear world. Their interaction rationalizes geopolitical outcomes that cannot be obtained when either trade…
Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are designed to disperse control, yet recent evidence shows that effective governance is often concentrated in a small number of participants. This note studies one simple mechanism behind that…
Chiappori et al. (2025) study several indices of assortativeness in matching, including the aggregate likelihood ratio and the odds ratio. We provide a counterexample showing that their axiomatization of the aggregate likelihood ratio is…
This paper derives new asymptotic results for the adaptive LASSO estimator in cointegrating regressions, allowing for uncertainty about whether the regressors are exact unit root processes. We study model selection probabilities, estimator…
Almost all countries in the world require banks to report suspicious transactions to national authorities. The reports are known as suspicious transaction or activity reports (we use the former term) and are intended to help authorities…
Consider an analyst who models a strategic situation using an incomplete information game. The true game may involve correlated, duplicated belief hierarchies, but the analyst lacks knowledge of the correlation structure and can only…
A principal uses payments conditioned on stochastic outcomes of a team project to elicit costly effort from the team members. We develop a multi-agent generalization of a classic first-order approach to contract optimization by leveraging…
For linear regression models with cross-section or panel data, it is natural to assume that the disturbances are clustered in two dimensions. However, the finite-sample properties of two-way cluster-robust tests and confidence intervals are…
This paper studies identification and estimation in semiparametric logit models when social networks are endogenous. In many applications, unobserved individual traits shape both the outcome of interest and the formation of social ties, so…
Gallice and Monz\'on (2019) present a natural environment that sustains full co-operation in one-shot social dilemmas among a finite number of self-interested agents. They demonstrate that in a sequential public goods game, where agents…
We generalize the model of Gallice and Monzon (2019) to incorporate a public goods game with groups, position uncertainty, and observational learning. Contributions are simultaneous within groups, but groups play sequentially based on their…
We propose a semi-structural DSGE model for the Israeli economy, as a small open economy, which contains a financial friction in the household sector credit market. Such a friction is reflected in a positive relationship between households'…
We modify the Double Machine Learning estimator to broaden its applicability to macroeconomic time-series settings. A deterministic cross-fitting step, termed Reverse Cross-Fitting, leverages the time-reversibility of stationary series to…
The theory of thermal macroeconomics (TM) analyses economic phenomena within the mathematical framework of classical thermodynamics, using a set of axioms that apply to the purely macroscopic aspects of an economy [CM]. The theory shows…
This paper introduces a regularized test of the null hypothesis of the absence of linear and nonlinear serial dependence for high-dimensional non-Gaussian time series. Our approach extends the portmanteau test introduced in Jasiak and…
This paper proposes a change in perspective on the ``transformation of values'' problem: from ``searching for a single constant solution'' to ``characterizing the allocation space under objective constraints imposed by the physical…
The code that was used in Erdil & Ergin (2008, AER) to compute stable improvement cycles sometimes generated unstable matchings. I identify the minor bug in their code that caused this issue, and I present a corrected implementation. While…