Economics
This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to…
Although QMLE is generally inconsistent, logistic regression relying on the binary choice model (BCM) with logistic errors is widely used, especially in machine learning contexts with many covariates. This paper revisits the slope…
We consider a sender-receiver game in which the receiver's action is binary and the sender's preferences are state-independent. The state is multidimensional. The receiver can select one dimension of the state to check (i.e., observe)…
We introduce an information order on experiments based on weighted garbling, a generalization of the standard notion of garbling. In this order, an experiment is more informative than another if the latter is a weighted garbling of the…
Extensive empirical studies show that the long distribution tail of travel time and the corresponding unexpected delay can have much more serious consequences than expected or moderate delay. However, the unexpected delay due to the…
We provide an analytical characterization of the model flexibility of the synthetic control method (SCM) in the familiar form of degrees of freedom. We obtain estimable information criteria, which may be used to circumvent cross-validation…
We provide a unifying way to analyze how risk aversion changes bidding in auctions by asking which bids become more attractive as bidders become more risk averse. In first-price auctions, under two payoff conditions--winning is never worse…
This study explores the different subjective values held by transgender people, including their subjective well-being, self-reported health status, and career-oriented decision-making. Using an individual-level panel dataset of over 19,000…
This study investigates how the view about women's active work changed after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) disease. We use individual-level panel data from 2016 to 2024 that cover the period before and after the…
We introduce the sampling logit equilibrium (SLE), a stationary concept for population games in which agents evaluate actions using a finite sample of opponents' plays and respond according to a logit choice rule. This framework combines…
We examine how causal beliefs affect an agent's choices and how feedback on those choices leads to updated causal beliefs. Building on the structural-equations framework for modeling causality, we first examine the general problem of…
We develop an analytically tractable model featuring heterogeneous workers and firms, where labor markets clear through a one-to-many sorting mechanism. Firms determine both the number and composition of their employees, shaping (1) the…
We study intergenerational transfers of income. In our stylized model, each generation in an infinite (but countable) stream is endowed with some income. An allocation rule associates with each infinite stream another stream, thus involving…
Time variability is a pervasive feature of mobility services and a major source of welfare loss. Although literature has quantified the cost of time variability (COTV), it remains theoretically unclear how bad time variability can be in the…
Immediately after the establishment of the New Meiji Government in the 19th century, a system of conscription was adopted. The exemption rule has changed several times. Using individual-level panel data on the academic performance of Keio…
As AI agents increasingly act on behalf of human stakeholders in economic settings, understanding their behavior in complex market environments becomes critical. This article examines how Large Language Models coordinate on markets that are…
A utility function has been proposed that values more those lives that are saved by not imposing a harmful treatment and values less those lives that could be saved by treating people who would otherwise die. I do not dispute the ethical…
We study dynamic relationships in which one party extracts current surplus in ways that degrade the future state, while the counterparty cannot exit but adjusts effort in response. Standard stationary Markov equilibria may sustain collapse…
In this paper, we design two chapters to discuss trade dynamics with heterogeneous fluctuations, contributing new insights to macroeconomic issues related to international trade. In the first chapter, we model general exchange rate…
The expansion of wind and solar power is driving the European energy system transformation, thereby also driving our reliance on this weather-dependent resources. Integrating renewable scarcity events into long-term planning has therefore…