Economics
This paper proposes a decomposition of human capital into three orthogonal components -- physical-manual (H^P), routine-cognitive (H^C), and augmentable-cognitive (H^A) -- and develops a production function in which AI capital interacts…
Societies and organizations often fail to surface latent consensus because individuals fear social censure. A manager might suspect a silent majority would offer a criticism, support a change, report a risk, or endorse a policy -- if only…
Traditional econometric analyzes represent observations as vectors despite the inherent complexity of empirical data structures. When data are organized along dual classification dimensions, a matrix representation provides a more natural…
This paper studies the economic role of persistent dispersion in allocations across agents. We develop a tractable model in which firms allocate resources under imperfect information and behavioral updating, generating sustained…
This paper examines the optimal contracts in a two-dimensional screening model where one dimension(group identity) is verifiable by agents but not falsifiable. A principal offers contracts to agents who differ in cost types and group…
Generative AI helps users solve problems more efficiently, but without leaving a public trace. Fewer discussions and solutions reach public platforms, and the archives that future problem-solvers depend on can shrink. We build a dynamic…
This paper studies how uncertainty about problem difficulty shapes problem-solving strategies. I develop a dynamic model where an agent solves a problem by brainstorming approaches of unknown quality and allocating a fixed effort budget…
Carbon farming is the collection of agricultural best practices specifically designed to maximize the capture and long-term storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in soils and plant biomass, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas…
Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA…
We consider treatment-effect estimation with a two-periods panel, where units are untreated at period one, and receive strictly positive doses at period two. First, we consider designs with some quasi-untreated units, with a period-two dose…
We provide a complete description of the set of all solutions to a vector autoregressive law of motion. Every solution is shown to be the sum of three components, each corresponding to a directed flow of time. One component flows forward…
We present a model of a forecaster who must predict the future value of a variable that depends on an exogenous state and on the intervention of a policy-maker. We investigate the incentives of the forecaster to acquire costly private…
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide the most credible estimates of advertising incrementality but are difficult to scale. We propose Predicted Incrementality by Experimentation (PIE), which reframes ad measurement as a…
This article demonstrates how a large number of efficiency measures known in the literature in production economics can be interpreted through the notion of utility function, based on the concept of Stone-Geary utility. Several…
Industrial policy has returned to the centre of economic governance, particularly in the high-tech sectors where positive network externalities in demand make market dominance self-reinforcing. This paper studies the welfare effects of an…
As AI agents become more autonomous, properly aligning their objectives with human preferences becomes increasingly important. We study how effectively an AI agent learns a human principal's preference in choice under risk via stated versus…
Time-of-use pricing is promoted to manage demand at public EV charging stations, yet its effectiveness depends on short run flexibility and local constraints. Using station by day by hour data from Shenzhen and Amsterdam, we estimate…
The standard wage Phillips curve aggregates away from which workers reset wages when. I show this aggregation omits a first-order term: the covariance between workers' cost-push exposure and their reset frequency. I introduce two sufficient…
This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting…
Business cycle synchronization between EU and Western Balkan candidate economies is usually modeled with aggregate time-domain correlations that mix short-run and long-run dynamics. This paper addresses that limitation by combining…