Economics

Autonomous AI systems can now generate complete economics research papers, but they substantially underperform human-authored publications in head-to-head comparisons. This paper decomposes the quality gap into two independent components:…

This paper studies bargaining when buyers can continue searching for alternative sellers while negotiating, which limits their commitment to complete a transaction. Using transaction level data from a Japanese online marketplace, I document…

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for two-step debiased machine learning (DML) estimators in generalised method of moments (GMM) models with general multiway clustered dependence, without relying on cross-fitting. While cross-fitting…

This study establishes a nontrivial upper bound on the out-of-sample $R^2$ ($R^2_{\text{OOS}}$) in return forecasting. In particular, we define a coin-flip oracle model that, under the same directional accuracy, theoretically outperforms…

Forecasting corporate financial distress increasingly requires capturing firms' adoption of transformative technologies such as artificial intelligence, yet model performance remains vulnerable to temporal distribution shifts as these…

Energy imbalance reserve (EIR) product is introduced into the Independent System Operator (ISO) of New England's day-ahead wholesale electricity market to provide a better fuel procurement incentive for generating resources. Different from…

Arrow's Impossibility Theorem is a seminal result of Social Choice Theory that demonstrates the impossibility of ranked-choice decision-making processes to jointly satisfy a number of intuitive and seemingly desirable constraints. The…

Specifications that impose constant treatment effects are common but biased, while fully flexible alternatives can be imprecise or infeasible. Under a bound on treatment effect heterogeneity, we propose a generalized ridge estimator,…

This paper analyzes the strategic interactions between a profit-maximizing monopolist and a free, capacity-constrained public option. By restricting its own supply, the monopolist intentionally congests the public option and induces…

While the importance of personalized policymaking is widely recognized, fully personalized implementation remains rare in practice, often due to legal, fairness or cost concerns. We study the problem of policy targeting for a regret-averse…

This paper studies the persuasion of a receiver who accesses information only if she exerts costly attention effort. A sender designs an experiment to persuade the receiver to take a specific action. The experiment affects the receiver's…

Dovonon and Hall (Journal of Econometrics, 2018) proposed a limiting distribution theory for GMM estimators for a p - dimensional globally identified parameter vector {\phi} when local identification conditions fail at first-order but hold…

Decisions to pursue higher education are not fully explained by economic incentives, with social influence and peer effects playing a crucial, yet dynamically understudied, role. This paper develops a theoretical non-linear dynamics model…

We analyse the UK income distribution from 2000 to 2023 using HMRC annual percentile data for both pre-tax and post-tax income. We fit a prefactor-adjusted $\kappa$-generalised specification to the data by weighted non-linear least squares…

We establish a variant of Monge--Kantorovich duality for a constrained optimal transport problem with a continuum of agents, a finite set of alternatives, and general linear constraints. As an application, we revisit the large-market model…

This paper establishes the theoretical and practical foundations for using Large Language Models (LLMs) as measurement instruments for latent economic variables -- specifically variables that describe the cognitive content of occupational…

This paper develops a penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for automatic debiased inference on functionals of nonparametric instrumental variable estimators. We derive convergence rates for the PGMM estimator and provide conditions for root-n…

Distributional effects, captured by quantile frameworks, are well-received for characterizing heterogeneous impacts of economic factors across the unobserved relative ranks. Censored outcome, endogenous regressor and heteroskedastic error…

fixest is an R package for fast and flexible econometric estimation. It provides a unified framework for applied research, with comprehensive support for a diverse class of models: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, generalized…

Information about peers' performance is pervasive in workplaces, yet its effects on worker behavior are mixed. We show that a key reason is that workers differ in how they value such information. In a real-effort experiment with 793…