Economics

This paper derives closed-form unbiased estimators of central moments in multilevel random-effects models with unbalanced group sizes. In a two-level model, we provide unbiased estimators for the second, third, and fourth central moments…

As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of…

Constructing confidence intervals for the value of an (unknown) optimal treatment policy is a fundamental problem in causal inference. Insight into the optimal policy value can guide the development of reward-maximizing, individualized…

While financial misconduct in advisory services persists despite regulation, the demand-side of market discipline, specifically the timing of investor detection, remains a critical bottleneck. Using approximately 55,700 FINRA BrokerCheck…

Using theory and experiments, this paper shows that the difficulty of making tradeoffs offers a parsimonious explanation for a wide range of behavioral phenomena. We develop a model of imprecise comparisons applicable to multiattribute,…

The commonly used two-way fixed effects estimator is biased under correlated heterogeneity and can lead to misleading inference. The mean group estimator proposed by Pesaran and Smith (1995) is robust to correlated heterogeneity but…

Algorithmic content targeting homogenizes information, with implications for strategic interactions. For example, this increased homogenization was arguably responsible for the run on the Silicon Valley Bank. We argue that existing measures…

This paper proposes a specification test for the conventional distributional assumptions of error terms in binary choice models, focusing on its tail properties. Based on extreme value theory, we first establish that the tail index of the…

Human decision makers increasingly delegate choices to AI agents, raising a natural question: does the AI implement the human principal's preferences or pursue its own? To study this question using revealed preference techniques, I…

The European Union Emissions Trading System is set to substantially increase the effective carbon price faced by airlines. To quantify the impact of this carbon regulation on the European airline industry, we estimate a two-stage model of…

This study investigates the relationship between coin demand, payment innovation, COVID-19, and a coin's purchasing power, particularly in emerging countries like Indonesia. The rapid advancement of payment platforms, combined with high…

In many applications of cooperative game theory -- from corporate governance and cartel formation to parliamentary voting -- not all winning coalitions are feasible. Ideological distances, institutional constraints, or pre-electoral…

We propose algorithms for conducting Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions identified using sign restrictions. The key feature of our approach is a sampling step based on 'soft' sign restrictions. This step draws from a…

Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…

We develop an axiomatic framework to evaluate income distributions from the perspective of an opportunity-egalitarian social planner. Building on a formal link with the literature on decision theory under ambiguity, we characterize a class…

This study provides a comprehensive strategic analysis of infrastructure energy investment in the context of the global low-carbon transition. Integrating quantitative panel data analysis across 15 countries (2010-2023), detailed case…

In this paper I develop a breakdown frontier approach to assess the sensitivity of Local Average Treatment Effects (LATE) estimates to violations of monotonicity and independence of the instrument. I parametrize violations of independence…

The institutionalization of stablecoins has led to a paradigm shift in reserve management, accelerated by the 2025 Green Energy and National Infrastructure Underpinning Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. This study investigates the…

In traditional banking, repeated deposit-and-lend cycles let a single dollar of reserves support multiple dollars of claims. Decentralized finance produces an analogous structure with tokens. Constructing a Token Graph of 10,200 tokens…

To grow their businesses, entrepreneurs often rely on equity funding. This paper focuses on two elements of entrepreneur-investor equity negotiations: the number of potential investors and the contractual complexity surrounding investor…