Economics
This article develops a significance test for the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimator based on dual-margin randomization, in which both the treatment and time indicators are independently permuted to generate an empirical null…
Volatility estimation is a central problem in financial econometrics, but becomes particularly challenging when jump activity is high, a phenomenon observed empirically in highly traded financial securities. In this paper, we revisit the…
Accurate forecasting of exchange rates remains a persistent challenge, particularly for emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). These series exhibit long memory and nonlinearity that conventional time series…
Do high-return fields of study provide greater protection in labor market during crises? I construct pre-pandemic premia for major technical fields in India and examine whether workers in higher field-premium fields experience resilient…
How does one test empirically the hypothesis that a decision maker (DM) is being influenced by information via Bayesian persuasion? In this paper, I consider a DM whose state-dependent preferences are known to an analyst, who sees the…
We introduce Coarse Q-learning (CQL), a reinforcement-learning model for bandit problems with stochastically varying menus. Alternatives are exogenously partitioned into similarity classes, and feedback from sampled alternatives is pooled…
Structural change consists of industrial diversification towards more productive, knowledge intensive activities. However, changes in the productive structure bear inherent links with job creation and income distribution. In this paper, we…
Recent empirical evidence shows that investments in ICT disproportionately improve the performance of larger firms versus smaller ones. However, ICT may not be all alike, as they differ in their impact on firms' organisational structure. We…
We compute the lattice operations for the (pairwise) stable set in many-to-many matching markets when only path-independence on agents' choice functions is imposed. To do this, we first show that the sets of firm-quasi-stable and…
We study a dynamic game where an expert sends probabilistic forecasts to a decision-maker. The decision-maker verifies these forecasts using a calibration test based on past data. How should the expert send forecasts to maximize her payoff…
We study treatment-effect estimation using panel data. The treatment may be non-binary, non-absorbing, and the outcome may be affected by treatment lags. We make a parallel-trends assumption, and propose event-study estimators of the effect…
We construct moment functions that are Neyman-orthogonal to a chosen order in parametric moment condition models. These moment functions reduce sensitivity to nuisance estimation error and, as such, offer a unified and tractable route to…
Recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping who enters entrepreneurship, but not who reaches the top of the quality distribution. Using data on over 160,000 product launches on Product Hunt, we find that…
In this paper, we use tools from network theory to trace the properties of the matching function to the structure of granular connections between applicants and vacancies. We unify seemingly disparate parts of the literature by recovering…
Needless to say, linear dynamics are pervasive in economic time series, particularly autoregressive ones. While gradient boosting with trees excels at capturing nonlinearities, it is inefficient in small samples when much of the predictive…
Average forecast accuracy is not the same as forecast reliability. I treat forecast loss differentials relative to a benchmark as a return series. I then evaluate these returns using risk-adjusted performance measures from finance,…
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky argued for challenging inside views (informed by contextual specifics) with outside views (based on historical "base rates" for certain event types). A reasonable inside view of the prospects for the global…
This paper introduces the concept of Engineering Economy as a new paradigm for understanding and managing macroeconomic policy in middle-income countries seeking to escape the middle-income trap. Drawing on Turkiye's post-2001 economic…
Noise traders can be dispensed with entirely. Partial revelation of information through prices arises under any non-exponential expected utility preference, including CRRA, without noise traders, random endowments, supply shocks, hedging…
Many economic interventions are designed as marginal changes in incentives. Yet in environments shaped by coordination, institutional persistence, and path dependence, such reforms often leave behavior largely unchanged. This paper studies…